• One-fifth of the 2008/2009 NBA season is in the books, so Wages of Wins compiled the data and projected how the remaining fourth-fifths will play out. Orlando figures to finish third in the East with 57 wins and a first-round playoff matchup with... wait for it... the Detroit Pistons.

• Meanwhile, John Hollinger's math-based playoff doohickey updates daily, and the most common result for the Magic is a 49-33 season, the third seed in the playoffs, and a matchup with the Chicago Bulls in the first round. I'll exchange fewer wins for a more favorable matchup every time, so naturally I prefer this scenario.

• Hornets247 crunches some numbers and concludes, among other things, that the Magic are actually better this year than they were last year, at least according to efficiency differential.

• Upside and Motor has Round 2 of the Blogger MVP/Rookie of the Year rankings. Keep track of how I voted here.

• K.D. talks about Orlando's loss to the Celtics last night in his Behind the Box Score feature:

  J.J. Redick's lack of playing time over the first two years of his career still leaves him making rookie-level defensive mistakes, and though that sounds like an excuse from my end, you know it's the truth. There are some things you can't anticipate with years of practice, and you need the actual in-game minutes to work with.

  Blame Brian Hill. That's usually a good policy. It's an unfair one, in this case, since Hill at least played Redick 15 minutes a game during his rookie season.

• Paul Pierce, who smoked the Magic with 24 points, discusses the Celtics' approach:

  "We were just taking advantage of the matchups," Pierce said. "We saw something that we could do and we just kept going to it. My teammates did a good job of setting me up."

• The NBA Store now has a framed, matted photo of some J.J. Reddick fellow available for purchase in its Magic section. Who the heck is J.J. Reddick? Is he related to J.J. Redick?

• UPDATE: John Denton wrote a little bit about Redick for ESPN.com's Daily Dime:

  Injuries ultimately ensured Redick another chance, and now it's up to him to make sure it lasts long after [Mickael] Pietrus and [Keith] Bogans return. [Stan] Van Gundy, who calls Redick "not a good shooter, but a great shooter,'' is hoping that guaranteed, uninterrupted minutes will help soothe his guard's nerves. And Redick knows that for all of the focus on his defense and ballhandling, he will ultimately be judged by his ability to hit shots.

  "I'm a professional and I'm paid to make shots, and if I'm not doing that, then I'm not doing my job,'' Redick said. "There's a lot made of my defense, rebounding and assists, but I'm ultimately judged by my shooting. I just need to go out there and make 'em.''

  The shots will fall eventually. I believe in J.J.

Boston Celtics forward Paul Pierce drives to the basket past Orlando Magic center Tony Battie in Boston's 107-88 victory on Monday night.

Photo by Charles Krupa, the Associated Press

Nothing to see here, folks. Just move along. The Boston Celtics rolled to a 107-88 victory over the Orlando Magic thanks to the stellar third-quarter play of Paul Pierce, who scored 17 of his 24 points in the period, and to suffocating defense throughout. Injury-depleted Orlando challenged near the end of the first half, but ultimately had neither the firepower nor the personnel--coach Stan Van Gundy only used two reserves the entire game--to mount a serious challenge in the second half.

There are a few reasons for Magic fans to panic, but let's not lose perspective here: Orlando hung with Boston for some of the game despite the fact that it was missing its three best guards. We'll get a better idea of what Orlando's made of when it's healthy, which may not be for a while now. January 22nd is the next meeting between these two teams. Let's hope both sides are healthy for that one. Before accusing me of homerism, please not that CelticsBlog, the web's foremost destination for Celtics fans and a proud member of SB Nation, agrees:

Honestly, with the Magic starting a backcourt of Anthony Johnson and JJ Redick, the Celtics absolutely should have won as they did. This is an unfair test of the Magic - we'll see what they've got in Orlando in the new year.

Bam.

More on the game, including why Otis Smith needs to start working the phones, after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

2008/2009 NBA Regular Season
	@
13-4		16-2
December 1st, 2008
TD Banknorth Garden
7:30 PM
NBA TV / Sun Sports
Probable starters:
Anthony Johnson	PG	Rajon Rondo
J.J. Redick	SG	Ray Allen
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Paul Pierce
Rashard Lewis	PF	Kevin Garnett
Dwight Howard	C	Kendrick Perkins

Well, it took a little more than a month, but it's finally here: the Orlando Magic's first game against a contending team. Prior to tonight's game, the Magic had not played any team that 100% of sane NBA observers would endorse as legitimately elite. Apologies to the Houston Rockets, of course.

Facing the World Champion Celtics at full strength is tough enough, so imagine the consternation the Magic face at having to Unfortunately, the Magic are well below full strength. Their top three guards--Jameer Nelson, Mickael Pietrus, and Keith Bogans--will all miss tonight's game due to various injuries. Indeed, their backup backcourt of Anthony Johnson and J.J. Redick will have to tangle with the Boston Celtics' first-string backcourt of Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen. Unenviable, to say the least.

Keeping the score respectable should be seen as a net positive. Allen will probably torch Redick, and although rookie Courtney Lee has shown signs of being a well above-average defender, he's still susceptible to picking up dumb fouls. Basically, I'm trying to keep my expectations low so if Orlando manages not to get blown-out, I can look at the game as a net positive.

Tip's at 7:30 on NBA TV nationally and Sun Sports locally. If Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu get it going, maybe the game won't be such a laugher. I don't hold out much hope, though.

Go Magic. Keep it close. Or, even better, win. Upset the champs. Yay!

UPDATE: Here's CelticsBlog's take on the game. The featured matchups are Howard vs. Perkins and Turkoglu vs. Pierce. I'd argue that Johnson vs. Rondo is even more important, at least from Orlando's standpoint. I don't know how Johnson plans to stick to Rondo, one of the league's quickest players, defensively, but he's going to have to give it his all. I'm ridiculously afraid of him.

Quick bullets before today's game against the Celtics. GameThread should be up at 2:45. On with it:

• Otis Smith tells John Denton he's not in a hurry to add more players, despite the fact that the Magic's three best guards are currently injured:

  "Like I have told (coach) Stan (Van Gundy) and (CEO) Bob (Vander Weide) I'm probably the most patient person around and I'm willing to give the situation time," Smith said. "It gives the kids (Redick and Lee) time to play and we'll see what they can do. You'd rather these injuries happen now than late in the season, but we'll be OK."

  I actually agree with Otis' approach, for the most part, but he should at least waive Mike Wilks to open up a roster spot for somebody. Wilks is out for the year and his contract is guaranteed whether he's on the team or not, so there's no harm in officially cutting him loose to make room for a player who might actually, you know, see the floor.

• Dwight Howard discusses his first career triple-double in his latest blog entry on NBA.com. He also posts photos of him in costume as Sho Nuff and Tyrone Biggums.

• Bucks Diary looks at the NBA's best starting lineups and bench units on a +/- per minute basis. Orlando has the 4th-best starting unit and 17th-best reserve unit. What does it say about this team that I was impressed that the reserve ranking was as high as 17th?

• In this weekend's NBA Dime at ESPN.com (Box #5), Marc Stein says he does not yet consider the Magic on the same level as Boston and Cleveland in the Eastern Conference. His argument is that Orlando hasn't actually beaten anyone, which is a pretty fair assessment, actually. Winning on the road is great and all, but it doesn't actually prove anything.

• UPDATE: Henry Abbott names Orlando as a potential destination for Stephon Marbury once the Knicks free him:

  The Magic are without Jameer Nelson for a few games. Mike Wilks is out all season. Keith Bogans is out as well. The result is talk of a rookie shooting guard getting time handling the ball.

  All the statements are true, and Marbury would indeed fill a need in Orlando. The problem is that Otis Smith does not gamble on guys with character issues, and explicitly ruled out signing Marbury last July. I have just as good a chance of suiting up for the Magic this year than Stephon Marbury does.

See you at tip time.