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A Look At the Washington State/Notre Dame Second Round Game

First misconception to get out of your mind about Washington State: They are not a bad offensive team.  Points per 100 possessions (offensive efficiency, kids) they're actually 19th in the country, shooting a solid 38.1% from behind the arc, good for 48th in the NCAA.  No, where Washington State gets its label as a "Defense only, offense sometimes" team is the fact they play at a pace so sluggish Georgetown would be somewhat upset at how slowly things were moving along.  The Cougars play at a speed faster than only seven out of 341 Division-I teams, and because of that, their scores look considerably lower, thus inflating the praise for their defense while causing people to ignore the offense.

(To try and put this into some kind of perspective, Notre Dame has played 18 games where the pace was 70 or higher.  Washington State hasn't played a game with a pace higher than 68.  This is mind-boggling.  No wonder their leading scorer transferred to Cal State Fullerton.  I realize Bennett had to slow things down just to keep the Cougars in the game as he started to turn them around, but that is absolutely staggering.)

That remark is not to make you think they're overrated on defense, as they're certainly very good, but not at some otherworldly level the Irish haven't been challenged by yet.  They rank 17th in defensive efficiency, putting them behind Louisville, Georgetown and Marquette (5th, 6th and 7th) and just ahead of Kansas State (18th), teams the Irish had varying success - but some success - against.  

My experience watching Washington State this season is very limited for a variety of reasons.  First off, they're aesthetically unpleasing to watch, with the boring uniforms and slow style of play, and also, thanks to the PAC-10's weird television contract, most of their games aren't on, so my random thoughts come from what I've read and what I saw in rewatching the majority of their first round game against our old friend Winthrop.  If you've followed the Cougars closely and know something I said is totally off, please shoot me an e-mail or toss it in the comments.  These are going to be broad generalizations at their most basic level attempting to piece a profile of this team together.

The biggest key to winning this game will be containing the penetration of the three-guard rotation of Taylor Rochestie, Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver (who at 6' 6" is more of a forward, but it's the same problem).  All three of these guys feed off one another in shooting the trey, and the Cougar big men (6' 10" Robbie Cowgill and Aron Baynes) seem to be more adept at converting easy feeds off penetration into lay-ups, dunks and short jumpers than in getting the ball in the post with their back to the basket.  I sped through most of the Winthrop game and can't remember more than a handful of times that a Cougar possession focused on just tossing the ball down into the block and seeing what happened.  The big men are all good screeners and there were a few very nice plays thrown in by Coach Bennett that got them easy alley-oop dunks against a lazy or outsmarted Winthrop defense.

The X-factor on offense is 6' 7" forward Daven Harmeling, who can hit the three but has been battling an ankle injury that's caused him to play very little the last few games.  He seemed to get back in touch with his scoring side with 13 points on 4-for-4 shooting from three in the Cougars' conference tournament loss to Stanford, but played a scoreless thirteen minutes against Winthrop, although he did chime in with three assists.  

While the second half effort in the first round was impressive, Winthrop could have only played worse if they were George Mason in the final twenty minutes of the game.  Washington State wasn't giving up wide-open looks every time down the floor, but there were certainly chances for the Eagles that were not converted.  Low and Rochestie, while more than capable defenders, are not huge guards at 6' 2" and 6' 1", but Weaver could certainly give McAlarney all kinds of trouble if Bennett made that call.  The big men are solid defenders inside, but I think it would be possible to drag them out away from the basket with the jump shooting ability of Kurz, Harangody, Ayers and Zeller.  

If the Cougars manage to keep this game at a slow tempo, it'll be extremely frustrating for the Irish, but I think the they'll be able to score points.  An ideal scenario would be to jump out to an early lead and keep Washington State completely out of their element, as their guards seem pretty solid if Brey were to try the 2-2-1 press in an attempt to speed the game up.  It would all most definitely come down to how well the Irish guards defended penetration, although another option would be to fall back into the zone and keep tabs on Low and Rochestie on the perimeter.  The Irish could cross their fingers and pray for another shooting performance like George Mason's, but I doubt they'll be that fortunate two games in a row.

Of course, maybe I'm not giving the Irish defense enough credit for George Mason's woes last night.  From the AP:

"If I would get past or have one [defender] on my hip, there was another big guy right beside him," Campbell said. "I mean, Notre Dame just played great defense. All my shots were contested. I tip my hat off to their defense."

Two other factors that could favor the Irish is the strong correlation between Washington State losses and their defense giving up offensive rebounds and trips to the foul line.  Washington State lost in four of their worst five performances in keeping their opponents from offensive rebounding, while losing only one of their best fourteen games cleaning up the glass.  If Hillesland, Harangody and Jackson all crash the boards like they're capable of, this could be a huge boon for Notre Dame.  As far as keeping their opponents off the foul line, the Cougars are very good, clocking in at 38th in the country.  However, Washington State was winless in their worst five games at giving up free throw attempts, another solid indicator if Harangody is piling up fouls on the opposition's front line.

Saturday's clash for a trip to the Sweet Sixteen could be a troublesome one for the Irish if they get behind early and have to defend for thirty seconds every time down the floor.  I don't there's a chance the Irish win if they're constantly trying to claw their way back into the game with one-and-done possessions while the Cougars grind it out on the other end. The good news is, unless the Irish defense is absolutely abysmal, odds are pretty solid that Washington State will suffer their own offensive drought.  Despite the fact Winthrop hadn't scored in the first seven minutes of the half last night, the Cougars had only extended their lead to nine points.  Notre Dame can win this game, but it'll take a defensive effort even better than against George Mason while keeping the balanced, potent attack on offense going, minus the scoring lulls that the team seems to fall into once or twice a game.  

If anyone finds any other interest stuff on the Cougars, please e-mail me or toss it somewhere on this site.  I'll be out of commission the rest of the day watching the rest of the games and probably pretty busy up until tip on Saturday as well, but I'm sure there can be another consolidation of Wazzu info.  Heck, if you found a great drinking story involving Jason Gesser and his robotic leg, send that along.  

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