Your Outsourced Notre Dame at Louisville Preview
Whenever I have the opportunity to both be lazy and turn to someone far more informed than me at the same time, I generally go for it. The following is from my friend Jeff, a Louisville native and fellow Notre Dame senior. I asked Jeff - who shares a hatred of Duke and love of The Wire with me, among other things - to put this together since he's watched most of the games played by both the Irish and Cardinals this season and is far better qualified than I to compare the two teams. His words follow.
Notre Dame at Louisville.
Oh, cruel fate, how you tear my heart asunder. For the Louisville-area ND grads, no other game means so much. Alma mater or hometown? Friends or family? The best four years of your life or your eighteen formative years? The Dome or the Derby?
The clash on Thursday night in Freedom Hall has extensive implications in the race for the Big East regular season championship, the Big East tournament, and the NCAA tournament. A Notre Dame win would give the Irish a clear shot at what would be at least a tie for the regular season championship and, depending on what Hibbert and co. do the rest of the way, a chance at an outright title. Not bad for a team picked ninth by the coaches in the pre-season.
For Louisville, a victory on Thursday would be one more notch on what has been a vicious row of games in the latter half of the Cardinals' Big East schedule. Following a soft three game stretch, the Cards played at Connecticut, Rutgers at home, at Marquette, Georgetown at home, at DePaul, at Providence, Syracuse at home, and at Pittsburgh. Thursday's game against the Irish will be followed with a visit from Villanova at Freedom Hall and a season-ending battle against Georgetown in D. C. Louisville drew brutal schedules in its first two years in the Big East, and this year is no different.
The battle on which everyone will be focusing - and ESPN will be ramming down your throats again and again and again - will be Harangody/Padgett. These two big white boys are the figurative eyes of the hurricane for both teams. Louisville runs everything through its wily and intuitive center. Padgett is an exceptional passer out of the post, and he's got a really nice turnaround hook that gets him four or five baskets a game. Harangody is the player that, as an opposing fan, you hate with all your guts, but you'd give just about anything to have him on your side. Within eight feet of the basket, he is an absolute bear.
Padgett is prone to foul trouble, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Derrick Caracter log a significant amount of time. The Caracter/Gody match-up is the one to which I'm most looking forward, as it pits two guys who are virtual mirrors of one another in size, age, and raw ability, yet polar opposites in hustle and basketball IQ. If Derrick had half of Luke's knowledge of the game and instincts, he'd be an All-American. But he doesn't. Oh well.
I would look for Harangody to get his usual 20 and 10. He had his way last year in South Bend with the UL post defense, but this is a more mature Louisville team with more weapons and looks to throw at Luke. Padgett has been playing very well in the last seven games or so, and this should be a fun match-up to watch, as long as you can stand the WorldWideLeader slobbering over both guys every time they touch the ball.
Speaking of mirror images, I've been convinced all year that Kyle McAlarney and Jerry Smith are the same person, and that this mysterious Kyle Smith undergoes a Michael Jackson-like skin operation in-between games. You might not even see them playing at the same time; there will be a special dermatologist on hand just for this game in the Freedom Hall locker rooms. Both very good shooters, both about 6'2" with a similar build, both very smart, both very consistent...
This is the match-up to watch. McAlarney is a slightly better shooter, while Smith probably has a step on McAlarney and is a little bit better defender. Other than that, they have very similar skill sets, and I would imagine that Pitino is going to tell Smith (and his lovably tenacious freshman back-up, native Kentuckian Preston Knowles) to stick to McAlarney like flies on dung after Kyle's performance on Sunday, while Brey will undoubtedly have ND's defense keep Jerry on the back of their collective minds at all times.
Before I wrote this, I asked myself, "Where does Notre Dame have a significant advantage?" All year long, Tory Jackson has been willing the Irish to victory with one gutsy performance after another. In a conference full of very good point guards, he is among the best. He's neither a dead-eye shooter like Scottie Reynolds nor an elite penetrator ala A. J. Price, but he can do enough of both to keep any defense on its heels. He will be key for Brey's squad in Freedom Hall, as he needs to penetrate the aggressive Louisville match-up zone (and the occasional man that Pitino will mix in). He's even more important in attacking the Cardinal press, as he is really the only superb ball-handler the Irish have. KMac and Jonathon Peoples can also handle it, but I wouldn't want either of them taking it up again and again against Pitino's patented press. It is imperative that he stays out of foul trouble on Thursday night; I've watched enough of UL's press to know that it can eat teams alive, especially late in the game, that lose their primary ball-handler.
Tory will be battling a combination of junior Andre McGee and sophomore Edgar Sosa. McGee has given consistent, if unheralded, contribution to the Cardinals night in and night out. He doesn't have the ability to explode like Sosa, but he is a good three-point shooter and a solid defender. The "Little Tiger" that is Edgar Sosa has more peaks and valleys than a winter South Bend road; he is an emotional headcase, but he has the raw ability to be an elite point guard. He can go for 28 like last year's NCAA tournament game against Texas A&M, or he can disappear like he did time and again earlier in the season.
The biggest problem that the Irish will face, both literally and figuratively, is at the two forward positions. When the talking heads gush about Louisville's athleticism, these are the two positions they are talking about. At 6'6", Terrence Williams is built like a tight end and can jump like a gazelle.
Exhibit B:
Exhibit C:
Exhibit D:
You can probably tell that I have a big mancrush on TWill. He is one of the most exciting players in the college game and the best athlete in the conference. He has a tendency to make some boneheaded mistakes, but he's cut down on his mishaps this year as he's completely bought into Pitino's system. The do-it-all small forward leads UL in points (11.7/game) and assists (4.6/game), and he's 0.3 rebounds/game from leading the Cards in rebounding, too.
Ayers is a nice player, but he hasn't shown the tenacity and lateral quickness to counter Williams. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hillesland get the majority of the minutes at SF on Thursday. He is a better match-up for the Irish against the high-flying Twill. Or maybe it's just because I want to see the two best athletes on each team go at it for 40 minutes.
I wish Smooth Earl Clark would have been born around 1965. His God-given athleticism, quiet confidence, and nonchalance would have fit in perfectly with Denny's Doctors of Dunk. If he grew an afro and wore shorts with a 4" in-seam, he would be my favorite UL player since DeJuan Wheat. Alas, the romance between Earl and me is not to happen.
A former McDonald's All-American, E5 has both the potential to dominate a game and to disappear for entire halves at a time (sound like another power forward we know Irish fans?). He may be the most skilled player on UL, but he lacks the fire to bring it every night. At 6'10" with a 7'2" wingspan, he does present a healthy problem for the Irish. Clark's ability to disappear in games is equaled by Rob Kurz, although Rob's certainly isn't due to a lack of basketball IQ or effort. E5 does lead UL in blocked shots and rebounds and is second in scoring, so Kurz is going to have to really bust it on the boards. Look for Earl to double-down on Harangody quite a bit, especially when Caracter is in the game. Harangody's ability to pass out of a double is only so-so, and he really needs to be looking out for it here. He won't be able to consistently take a double from any combination of Padgett/Clark/Caracter/Palacios, but UL will rotate a wing down to the post, opening up the three.
In the event that Mike Brey miraculously decides to go to his bench, I'd like to see Peoples get a solid number of minutes. UL's pressure, both full-court and half-court has worn down quite a few teams in the past three weeks or so. I've seen it time and again; the Cards and the Opponent will play relatively evenly for 33- 35 minutes, only to see Opponent's guards make one boneheaded mistake after another at the end because they are mentally and physically exhausted. Peoples is a good enough ball-handler to handle UL's backcourt for five to ten minutes at a time, and Brey needs to let Jackson rest. Ditto for McAlarney.
Depth is the wild card that Pitino has been holding against everyone since UL has been healthy. On his bench he has a power forward that started on a Final Four team in Palacios, a former top-20 player in Caracter, a gritty and tenacious defender with a nice jumper in Knowles, and an explosive PG in Sosa. If Will Scott finds himself on the court, Brey needs to attack him. He's not a good shooter, not a good athlete, and just plain not good. I cringe every time he steps on the floor. Please don't play him, Rick.
Freedom Hall can be a difficult place to play, but some sweet shooting from the Irish will enable them to keep the crowd quiet (as I have images of Steve Novak dancing in my head). If UL gets on a roll, watch out. The home crowd will be amped, so it's imperative that the Irish get off to a good start, not only to keep the crowd out of the game, but also because the Cards have outplayed just about everyone in the second half since they've been healthy, especially in Freedom Hall.
Prediction: I'm honestly not too sure. The most any Big East team has scored in Freedom Hall this year is 58, but the Cards haven't played anyone as good offensively as Notre Dame. I think it will be damn close, but a little bit lower-scoring than what a lot of people think. I think it comes down to this: ND is 2-3 against the top 5 in the Big East, with all three losses coming on the road, two of them blowouts, and UL is 3-1 against the top 5 in the Big East, with a two point loss in Hartford as the lone blemish.
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