Joe Lunardi, the Bracketologist whom I trust the most - both because he's been doing this a while and because he's updating daily, which comes in handy - has Notre Dame situated at a six seed right now, which feels about right.  We're safely in the tournament, but there's a lot of work we can still do to improve the seed.  Considering he has us matched up against 11th seed Winthrop, the justifiably trendy (they probably should have knocked off Rocky Top last March) pick for the upcoming tournament, I'd like us to move up.

The computer numbers have improved into respectable range, with a RPI of 35, which currently wedges the Irish between two teams I highly regard, Virginia and Butler.  Pomeroy's ratings, which I don't think are used by the committee but take a lot of factors into play, jump us all the way up to 15.  Win-loss is great, as we're 9-4 against the RPI Top 100, 6-3 against the top 50.  We're 10-5 in a good Big East conference, and that non-conference win over Maryland is looking more and more valuable as they knock off the likes of Duke (twice) and UNC.  On the downside, our non-conference SOS is still a hideously ranked 301, while the non-conference RPI isn't quite as ghastly at 66.

How high can we get?  Well, nothing happens in a vacuum, because its very possible for us to play very well and not gain a lot of ground or play decently and move up a couple seed lines, depending on what happens to those directly in front of us.  The current five seeds?  Texas, Virginia, Butler and Southern Cal.  Some really good teams in that group, so we have our work cut out for us.

Step one is to roll up the sleeves against Rutgers and not suffer a South Florida/St. Johns-caliber loss (Ever think what our RPI and seed would be if we hadn't lost to them?  Sigh...).  The RAC is a tough place to play, but the Scarlet Knights have been utterly loathsome this year, and with the way the kids are playing, I can't see us dropping that game (4:00 Saturday on ESPN).

After that, the Irish's first round bye in the Big East tournament will be locked up, and going by the Card Chronicle's projections, we'll be taking on the winner of Syracuse and St. Johns.  We couldn't have played any better against the Orange than we did earlier in the season when we dropped 103 on them in the Dome, and they're certainly peaking at the right time, winners of five straight, including the Big Monday, bid-clinching victory against the Hoyas.  This would not be easy, especially with Demetris Nichols playing like the conference player of the year, but it always looks good to beat hot teams towards the end of the season.

Win against the Orange and it's most likely a rematch against Georgetown, a team that demolished the Irish all the way back in January, or our first date with Pitt.  The Hoyas' big boys inside present a whole lot of match-up problems, but Tory Jackson is about a hundred times better than he was two months ago, where he actually played the best of any of the Irish.  We'll get into the problems brought on by the Irish needing to zone, which would come into play against either of the teams.  Pitt's had the Irish's number the last couple of seasons, but with Aaron Gray still hobbled, ND has a shooter's chance.

Perhaps the better question is "What seed do we want to end up with?".  A few weeks ago, I was content to stay in the 6-7 range, as the number one seeds (UNC, Kansas, Florida, UCLA) had clearly separated themselves from the pack, while the two seeds didn't look quite as scary.  However, as we enter conference tournament time, losses by the Tar Heels and Gators have then teetering into the two-line while Ohio State, a team I'm not overly impressed by, is up to a one seed.  Who would you rather face in the Sweet Sixteen: Wisconsin or Texas A&M?  The Badgers are currently a one, while the Aggies are sitting on the two-line.  As of now, it's more about which bracket you're put in than the seed.  As long as we avoid Winthrop - trust me, you want no part of Big South champs - in the first round and enter the big bracket with some momentum, I'm a happy camper.  

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Rob and I will also be setting up a Tournament Challenge group for anyone that wants to enter.  We'll let you know when that's taken care of so you can join up and try your best at prognosticating the bracket, which did not go well for anyway last year.