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Nothing Cures A Hangover and the BCS Blues Like Math

As the great, anti-Gary Danielson Florida vs. Michigan debate is already waging, I thought it would be interesting to look at this thing as objectively as possible.  These are last week's Sagarin rankings, so they're not perfect, but they're something to start with.  Only wins are noted, losses will be factored in a bit later.

Behold:

Team A

12
15
23
37
46
61
66
74
78
89
95

Team B

4
10
11
27
29
42
45
52
60
66
111
211

Team A has the more balanced schedule - I believe the nerdfolk would say the standard deviation is lower - as every team comes in under a hundred yet they lack a top ten win.  Team B's top and bottom heavy, with three wins in the top twelve and two wins over teams not even in the top one hundred.  (I don't think anyone who knows these teams is confused about who is who right now, but we'll continue.)

Oddly enough, if you average out the rankings of all these teams, Team A's average is 54 and Team B's is 55.7.  That's damn close.  Sagarin has A's schedule ranked 13th, B's 19th.  They're very, very close in terms of victories, so I guess we have to turn to the losses.

Team A is obviously Michigan, who lost to Ohio State, the consensus number one team in the country without a doubt in anyone except Ian Johnson's mind.  That leaves Team B as Florida, who lost to Auburn in a game where they didn't allow an offensive touchdown, but also managed to get outwaited in the "Who's going to make the stupid mistake first?" department.  Auburn's thirteenth in Sagarain and just about there in the BCS, but I'm not sure anyone trusts the Plainsmen or really know if they're any good or not, as their two losses have come in embarrassing style, at home, to Arkansas and Georgia.

If I had to pick, I punish Florida for scheduling the two above-100 teams, especially Western Carolina, who's Division 1-AA.  If you like your argument to be that conference champions should play for the national title, then you're obviously pro-Florida, but I'm not sure if I agree with that logic since no conference was overwhelmingly great this year.  Michigan's wins aren't as shiny, yet they were never threatened through the majority of it and took care of a pretty solid resume (Somehow Minnesota is ranked 37th in Sagarin's ratings.  Weird.).

Obviously this whole argument is ludicrous, and we should just have a playoff, but we're not.  Although I don't want to see a rematch of a game that Ohio State handled by two scores during the majority of, the resume slightly - ever-so-slightly - favors Michigan, although that's taking objective measuring units then looking at them subjectively.

Style points and conference championships should not be relevant.  Resumes should be relevant, and right now the two resumes, despite the power of the LSU, Tennessee and Arkansas wins, seems to lean just a bit towards the Wolverines.  

(And of course, the BCS Guru says it's going to be Florida vs. Ohio State.  Plaaaaayoff, plaaaaaaayoff, plaaaaaaaaaayoff......)


Perhaps Tom and Sexy Rexy already settled this on the field last Sunday...

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