The era of the rather competent NBA GM is still upon us, but thank goodness Michael Jordan and Larry Bird are still in front offices.  While they're two of the greatest players of all-time, they're proving to be two of the worst personnel guys of all-time.  I think the theme of this draft, and this has been said from Simmons' column to FreeDarko, is that the teams were just in the wrong order. 

Rose going to the Bulls first was fine, or if you put them back in the bottom of the lottery where the odds had them, then he can go to the Heat like the numbers said he would.  Beasley to the Grizzlies, Mayo to the Sonics, Love to the Grizzlies, Gallinari to the Knicks, Gordon or Westbrook to the Clippers and so on and so forth.  I still don't think all of the players taken at the top of this draft are totally settled yet, although it's possible Riley just throws out a top heavy team of Wade, Marion and Beasley just to see what happens for a season before Carlos Boozer or Elton Brand come down to South Beach in 2008.

I was going to do a running diary of the night's events, but it's tough to do in a crowded living room with only five minutes between picks and flipping over to the Pirates game and America's Best Dance Crew during the limited commercials.  Here's a few very belated thoughts on the draft that was.:

• The Derrick Rose pick is the smart move here for a ton of reasons.  A few of my good friends are Bulls fans, and we've been looking since 2005 at the data on 82 Games that states pretty clearly that Kirk Hinrich isn't as good as people think, and you can find evidence of that elsewhere on the internet or just by watching Chicago games.  It's true that none of the young, exciting front court players on the Bulls - plus the elder statesman, Drew Gooden - have a back to the basket game, but you don't need it with a point guard like Rose slicing into the lane and tossing up alley oops to Tyrus, Joakim and whoever else wants the easy hoop.  Fan Hinrich, Nocioni, Gordon and Thabo around the perimeter and you've got a potent, up and down offense that knows how to play defense from the time the taskmaster Scott Skiles ran things.  This isn't an indictment of Michael Beasley at all; just consider it an endorsement of Rose.  In the NCAA tournament, he went head-to-head with prospective pros or guys considered quality college players and destroyed them.  Neitzel, Augustin and Collison all were chucked to the side by a freshman, who other than his eating habits, seems about perfect.
• According to Hollinger's numbers over at ESPN, Beasley is the best rated college prospect since 2002, which is pretty damn impressive.  He was surrounded by young, inexperienced teammates and the inconsistent, oft-injured Bill Walker, but still put up huge numbers in a pretty tough conference and got to the second round of the NCAA's.  A lot of the questionable character things people bring up seem pretty harmless, as if all 19 year olds were supposed to have live squeaky clean, innocent lives.  As much as Riley didn't want to draft him, you can be sure he'll be keeping a very close eye on him to avoid any sort of off-court troubles.
• Poor Ovinton J'Anthony Mayo thought he would be in Miami or Los Angeles, or at the very least Seattle, but spent his draft night resigned to a fate in both Minnesota and Memphis.  I did love his suit and glasses combination, though, as if he was trying to channel his inner Lester Freamon.  Not sure if he's a Wire fan, but if so, that combined with his first step and three point shooting range make him one of my favorite rookies already.  Sadly, I'll never get to see him play because he's in Association purgatory.
• I've gone back and forth on Love over the past few days, and I honestly just don't know.  If he sheds some of the weight and is able to get up and down the floor, a lot of my concerns will be alleviated, as I don't expect him to put his back to the basket and score like a lot of people were criticizing him for being unable to do against Memphis in the Final Four.  He's got an outside shot, great court vision, defensive intensity and a winning pedigree, although you have to wonder how much Ben Howland's painfully slow, junk offense protected him over the course of the season. 
• Poor Darrell Arthur.  Tumbles down the board, then gets traded a trio of times over night.  The Wizards could have definitely used him, but instead they take another freaking inside project that may or may not ever develop.  Good thing they're not a winning team just a piece or two away from title contention.  Oh, wait. . .
• For some reason, I can't help but think of Aaron Brooks every time I try to envision the Stanford center.  He's not going to be an All-Star, but he'll be a serviceable big guy to toss into to toss into the rotation.  He's got some polish, so this isn't some quest for the Next Andrew Bynum, but instead just a decent big man projected to maybe go a little higher than he should in a thin middle of the lottery.  Going tenth to the Nets is perfect, and Charlotte is absolutely silly for passing on him for D.J. Augustin unless they're getting another young, cheap seven-footer in a deal for Raymond Felton.  Their loss is the Nets' gain.
• Speaking of the Nets, a lot of people's poor decisions was New Jersey's game.  I'm not sure I like giving up Richard Jefferson for Chairman Yi and the corpse of Bobby Simmons, but I loved Ryan Anderson and Chris Douglas-Roberts going into this draft, and New Jersey got both of them.  While I tip my hat to GM's for passing on DeAndre Jordan for so long, I also wonder what CDR was saying in interviews that led him to fall the entire way out of the first round after being the best player on the best team for most of the season.
• The Nuggets, who desperately needed a point guard, must have thought Mario Chalmers would be off the board when they picked at twenty, so they traded it to the Bobcats.  Woops.  Hopefully they're just putting pieces together for a blockbuster, but since they already passed on one such trade (Billups and Prince for Anthony), I doubt they'd do it again.
• As far as post-draft stuff not to miss, Simmons' running diary is an annual tradition and FreeDarko's summary also has some great lines ( JR Giddens is "The next ex-Kansas swingman to get stabbed in Boston?").

Why in the world should I care about the NBA draft?  The NBA is rigged, they don't try hard and it was so much better back in the day.

I'm not going to tell you to watch it if the thought of Josh Smith throwing down alley oops doesn't get you excited, but of all the major sports, the NBA draft is the best.  MLB is okay in the aftermath for die-hard baseball fans (Viva Pedro Alvarez!), but actually impossible to watch in its entirety due to the thousands of rounds involved, while hockey still hasn't reached any sort of mainstream level.  NFL is certainly close, and it's a matter of preference, but given that I understand basketball more than football at a systematic level, it's easier for me to break down.

For example, I watched enough hoops to be able to at least somewhat compare the benefits of taking DJ Augustin, Russell Westbrook or Jerryd Bayless as your point guard of the future.  Beyond what Mel Kiper tells you, how many people in the nation can properly translate whether Ryan Clady, Chris Williams or Jeff Otah will fit in better as the new Chicago Bears left tackle? 

I like to compare the NBA Draft to a shorter NFL draft that didn't have offensive linemen, just exciting skill position players and defensive monsters ready to impact the next season and help put a team over the top. 

Who is likely to go in the first few picks?

While there are apparently a few members of the Bulls organization in Camp Beasley, they're almost certain to take hometown boy Derrick Rose and move Kirk Hinrich (either out of town or over to the two guard).  The fun begins in the second spot, where Pat Riley doesn't want to take Michael Beasley but might anyway just because of the potential windfall he can get from trading him.  Riley wants OJ Mayo to make a dynamic, completely unpredictable backcourt with Dwyane Wade, and would probably trade with the Grizzlies (rumors of the number five pick, Mike Miller and Kyle Lowry) if he knew Mayo would be there.

With Kevin McHale and the Minnesota Timberwolves picking third, there is absolutely no idea of predicting what will happen once Miami is off the clock.

Who has been rising up as we get closer to Thursday?

The man who will most likely be the lone Big East represenative in the lottery (unless someone gets crazy with Roy Hibbert), Joe Alexander has shot up draft boards, along with UCLA point guard/wingman Russell Westbrook.  Alexander's end of season production was monster, as he was a beast as soon as the calendar turned March, and put in some great performances in tournament play.  He also has been working out like a mad man (second fastest and second strongest in the whole combine) and really is a newcomer to the game of basketball compared to a lot of other players in the draft, as he grew up in China and learned hoops there (he's also fluent in Mandarin).  Two weeks ago the Trailblazers were hoping to see Alexander fall to them at thirteen, but you can't find a mock that has him falling farther than the Bucks at number eight.

Westbrook is also impressing a lot of people as a jack-of-all-trades guard, being touted as a solid point guard, a defensive stopper and a Barbosa-like scorer (this is by Chad Ford, so dismiss if you like).  He never was rated that low, but he's been creeping into Bayless territory with the Seattle/Oklahoma City Supersonics at number four.  I don't see him falling past the Knicks at six, who need some toughness from the guard position beyond the trash-talking of Nate Robinson.

Who has been falling?

Three guys that seem to have trouble finding consistent  homes in the latest draft mocks are Stanford center Brook Lopez, LSU forward Anthony Randolph and Italian Danilo Gallinari (which again, must be breaking Ford's heart). 

Lopez seemed like a lock for the three spot and the T-Wolves until Riley hyped up Mayo and McHale developed his crush on Kevin Love.  He won't fall out of the top ten, but the odds of him going in that three spot are slimmer and slimmer. 

Randolph, a freshman who was productive but totally under the radar in an awful SEC, has drawn comparisons to Kevin Garnett, Brandan Wright and Chris Bosh, but really only because he is a thin, long forward who projects out to a 3/4.  He's got perhaps the most tremendous upside potential of anybody on the board, but also is potentially radioactive for teams that might only be a player or two away and can't wait for him to develop.

Gallinari was thought to be a shoe-in at six, as his dad played pro ball in Europe with new Knicks coach Mike D'antoni, but that's not for sure as the wandering eyes at the Garden look at Westbrook and Alexander.

Indiana's Eric Gordon is also raising some question marks, but I haven't seen him falling past the Clippers at number seven enough times to classify him as a true dropper.

If I'm betting on one player to go to one team after Rose to the Bulls, any suggestions?

Texas' DJ Augustin to the Indiana Pacers seems like a done deal unless someone above Larry Bird's crew snatches him up.  The Pacers need a point guard, Augustin played well in Austin and projects well to the NBA despite being a little undersized, and I'd say he's getting somewhat undervalued compared to Bayless and Westbrook.

Any sleepers for late in the first round?

I am a big fan of Cal forward Ryan Anderson.  When I was out in Los Angeles over spring break I saw the Golden Bears take on Mayo and the Trojans, and you've got to be impressed with a 6' 11" guy that's shooting 41% from three and averaging ten boards per game.  When I saw him he had an off shooting night (1-for-6 from behind the arc), but rolled up his sleeves and went inside, grabbing 12 boards, still put up 22 points and blocked a shot.  He might need to add some muscle, but keep an eye out for this kid to be working his way into the rotation of a returning playoff team by early 2009.

What's up with Kevin Love?  Is he a proven winner who will translate to the pro game or just a chubby guy who won't be able to make it up and down the floor?

After initially dismissing Love's chances, I think I might have talked myself into him when chatting with my friend Avants yesterday.  The NBA is getting smaller and faster, moving towards a full court game, although defense is still important (as you saw with the Celtics victory).  If the league keeps getting smaller, then Love won't have any super mismatches on the low block with his 6' 9" size.  But if it keeps getting faster, won't that mean his lack of footspeed will be a big factor as he waddles up and down the floor?

The one factor that would benefit Love here are his tremendous outlet passes, which have turned into a running joke among my friends in regards to how much the announcers hyped them up, but he is good at getting the ball quickly down the floor.  If he's not totally overwhelmed by the speed, size and athleticism of the opposition's front court on a nightly basis, he'll be able to anchor the defense and jump start the offense by firing perfect passes out to streaking guards.

I think Love could be a solid player on a good team, but I don't think he has much of an effect on some of the crappy teams at the top of the draft board.  He has the potential to bring a unique skillset and a winner's pedigree to a team that might put them over the top, but he also has a relatively high bust potential for where he might be taken (in the three to five range).  Anyone who tells you they know what Love will do in the NBA is lying, and because of that reason, he might be Thursday night's biggest domestic enigma (nothing can compare to the confusion caused by trying to translate European prospects).

Do you really think Rob Kurz is getting drafted?

No, and even if I did, I wouldn't get my hopes up after poor Russell Carter didn't get a flier taken on him in the second round last year.

The NBA Draft is Thursday night at 7:00 pm.  The photo theme for this post was "White forwards with a jump shot."