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Where I Come From: Expectations for the 2010 Notre Dame Season

I've realized that despite my generally pessimistic attitude on a week-to-week basis in regards to Notre Dame games, my outlook in the summer is generally pretty bright and cheerful.  The worst example was the progression through 2007, where I went from "This team is going to be really bad next year" following the departure of Brady Quinn and everyone else to talking myself into a pretty solid year by September.  That didn't exactly happen, so I've tried to be a bit more reserved.  Still, I can't help getting excited for this season, although I'm working on tempering those expectations.

But there are a lot of reasons for hope, my friends.  First and foremost is Brian Kelly, 34-6 at Cincinnati and undefeated last year.  He is simply a very successful college coach who has won at every stop throughout his career.  The staff he's put together seems smart, organized and ready to take on the challenge of rebuilding Notre Dame football.  If his success on the field in fall is comparable to his work elsewhere or how he's handled himself off the field as Irish coach, we're all in for a very good season. 

Thanks to the steadfast recruiting efforts of his predecessor, Kelly is stepping into a depth chart full of four and five-star talent.  While the Irish teams of the last few years didn't play like teams assembled out of top ten recruiting classes, they have that advanced pedigree.  Considering Kelly's system turned middle-tier recruits like Mardy Gilyard into stars, just imagine what he'll be able to do with guys like Mike Floyd and Kyle Rudolph.  There will obviously need to be a solid effort from the offensive line, but I'm comfortable that a team anchored by Trevor Robinson and Chris Stewart should at least give the skill players a chance to get up field.  Dayne Crist is a mega-talented but unproven starter at quarterback, but considering Kelly's track record at that position, I think there's limited reason to worry.

On defense, the maturation of a young front seven is complete, as guys thrown into the fire as freshmen have had time to gain experience and muscle over the last couple trying seasons.  With the departure of Kyle McCarthy the secondary could be in a little trouble, but again, there is talent to fill the gaps.  The linebacking corps, led by Manti Teo, has a chance to be positively lethal if Kelly's propensity for blitzing continues.  (I assume Kelly's blitzes will attempt to be effective, as opposed to the Tenuta blitzes that took delayed, looping routes to the quarterback and had no chance of success.)

 The schedule is tricky but manageable.  Starting with two games at home against not terrifying Big Ten opponents helps, but after Purdue and Michigan, things could get very ugly very quickly.  There are some soup cans (Army, Western Michigan) but a majority of the games fall under the category of "Very winnable, but certainly very losable as well," including basically all of September, the home games against Pitt and Utah and the trips to Troy and Chestnut Hill.  It's a schedule a good team would have no trouble reaching double digit wins against, but who knows if this version of the Fighting Irish is going to be good.

Problems facing the Irish?  They've won 16 games the last three seasons combined, and two of the main contributors to those wins are no longer with the team.  There is plenty of talent to replace Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate, but someone has to take the leap into their shoes.  People have to stay healthy and the inability to finish games late needs to be corrected.  The defense will be learning a new system out of a new base formation, but considering it seemed like they went most of last season without any sort of game plan, even a slightly muddled execution of a system should be more productive in comparison. 

The question for the upcoming season is not whether Brian Kelly can develop players, but how fast can he do it and how many bad habits exist from the previous regime that need to be corrected.  If you just looked at an Irish depth chart with star rankings, you'd assume the team had been at double digit wins each year, but that's not how football works and they were far from elite status.  Brian Kelly seems like an elite coach, and it seems like he's working with elite talent, but until the results are seen on the field, the track records of neither coach nor players matter.

Expectations for the season are mild compared to what you normally expect from Notre Dame fans, but a solid September will get them right back to where everyone is comfortable, happy and a hair delusional: hoping for, praying for and expecting championships.

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You didn't actually say WHAT you expected.

As for me. This team could very easily go 10-2 like they did in Charlie’s first season. Remember that Notre Dame typically does well in a coach’s first season, regardless of who that coach is. The team just seems to get excited for a new regime. Also, Kelly is far better at the X’s and O’s than anyone since Lou Holtz, and he’s just as good a motivator as Lou also. The reason Notre Dame couldn’t finish games the last few years was because Charlie Weis wasn’t exactly a powerful motivator. He and his crew focused so much on “schematics” that they tended to neglect the little things like “execution” and “emotion.” Brian Kelly is good at ALL THREE! There is 21 straight years of evidence that this is true!

I only see one “Sure Loss” on the schedule and that is USC (until ND proves otherwise, this is a sure loss in my mind). Other than that, Notre Dame will more than likely have a brain-fart against somebody. My money is on Michigan State. MSU consistently plays up to, or down with, Notre Dame and their level of intensity/skill. 2005 and 2006 are the best examples of this. Boston College, as always, remains a trap game. Navy is preseason ranked for the first time since the Second World War, so I expect a toughie there too.

So 10-2 is my best case scenario. 7-5 is my worst case, but I just cannot see Brian Kelly doing worse than 7-5 this coming year. Everything from the home/away schedule to our bye week before the Utah game sets up for Notre Dame to take advantage. No matter what, I see Notre Dame definitely making a Bowl Game by a comfortable margin.

by GoldrushND on Jul 13, 2010 5:35 AM EDT reply actions  

ND 2010 Season

As it is always the case, we ND fans tend to be excessively optimistic so I like the caution you use. I indeed have written in a different blog that I thought ND record might be 6-6 or 7-5 if the Irish beat Purdue, Michigan State, Navy, Tulsa and Stanford in addition of the two “soup cans.” My opinion is that the Irish should be able to beat Purdue, Western Michigan, Tulsa and Army. Home advantage might give them an edge against Michigan and Stanford but not against Pittsburgh or Utah. ND will have issues being the visiting team to East Lansing, East Rutherford, Chestnut Hill and L.A. If they win two of these four games as a visiting team and split one victory between Michigan and Stanford, their final record should be 7-5.

by Tomas Hernandez on Jul 18, 2010 11:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Good analysis

a 10 win season, while possible, happens only if just about everything goes right.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Jul 27, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

One thing that looks promising for the Irish...

Is that Les Miles is in Baton Rouge, not South Bend. I can also see a .500 or 7-5 season very easily. Utah have proven formidable in recent years. I give the Irish the edge over Michigan because Rodriguez sucks. I have some serious questions about a Stanford that has a habit of pulling out the odd upset.

Ever since the Lou Holtz era ended, I have some serious questions about the Irish. The Irish are 18-37 against ranked opponents and 4-20 against top 10 opponents. The Irish also have fewer bowl wins than the Florida Atlantic Owls since 1997. As a side note, the Owls have only had a football team for nine years, and they’ve only been in I-A since 2006.

Alabama, my team, had a lot to prove after the chaos and scandals of the years after Stallings. You had Weis, we had Shula. I think we got of lightly. If Notre Dame is to recover, it will take time, it will take patience among the fan base, and above all else, it will take quality wins over quality opponents and not choking in bowl games. Can it be done? Who knows. All I know is the suffering of a fan, and the exquisite joy when that suffering is over.

I grant fools the same tolerance and respect Lindsay Lohan grants the legal system. Seriously, "F*** You" on her middle finger in the middle of court when she was eventually sentenced to jail? MORON!

by DancesWithTrojans on Jul 26, 2010 9:41 PM EDT reply actions  

The biggest thing since the Lou Holtz era is that ND hasn't relaxed the academic standards...

Tony Pike and Chris Zorich would never be able to make a ND team now, and they were a two very big reasons for Lou’s national championship.

I’ve been criticized for questioning if ND will ever truly be a powerhouse again because their inherent disadvantages of being a “Northern” college and academic requirements. Now having said these things I don’t have a problem with ND sticking to their guns and being a BCS contender every 5 years. Perhaps its years of rooting for horrible teams from the Royals, and Chiefs that I don’t have expectations as high as others.

C'MON CHEN!!! ---Will Ferrell

by averagegatsby on Jul 30, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

How well the team does depends more on Crist than anyone else

if he stays healthy and plays well, they will do well. If he goes down with a major injury, ND will be lucky to finish .500.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Jul 27, 2010 9:47 AM EDT reply actions  

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