Over the years, I've grown less and less interested in my own bracket.   My only goal is to nail one sleeper among the usual 1's and 2's that make the Final Four.  Sometimes, this goes really well, as I had Davidson in the national semis in 2008 and was oh-so-close to everlasting glory.  More often, my sleepers fall in the first round, cut down at the buzzer by Drew Nicholas, such as the poor Seahawks of UNC-Wilmington in 2003.  The trick is to only pick out one sleeper, because if you just have every Elite Eight a match-up between 6's and 7's, then happen to get one right, where's the glory in that?  This year I like BYU, but I could absolutely see them getting out-athleted by Florida in the first round.  But we'll see, that's the beauty of the next three weeks. 

There are actually a few things to hate about the NCAA tournament, although it is pretty close to perfect.  The main reason is the committee's propensity of pairing up exciting mid-majors next to each other.  This has happened a lot over the years, and there's no excuse for it.  Western Kentucky/Drake.  Gonzaga/Davidson.  Kyle Korver/Chris Kaman.  As with everything the NCAA does, it is to protect the big guy, and it's no different from pairing up Boise State and TCU in the Fiesta Bowl.  Ignorance is almost always bliss, but the less you think about shady underhandedness of college athletics, the better.  But honestly, once "One Shining Moment" starts playing, I forget how much I loathe Dan Guerrero and move on with my life.  (This might not happen this year with Jennifer Hudson singing it.  Might as well mess with a good thing!)

Not that it matters in the slightest, but I have Kansas beating Kentucky in my championship game.  It's boring, and it's probably wrong, but I accept that.  We all like to be adventuresome in our picks, but in the end, it's almost always one of the top five or six teams in the country that wins this thing.  Your bracket will make you feel good when you fill it out, but by the time the Elite Eight rolls around, you're losing to some nerd in your office that couldn't tell you Duke's leading scorer, let alone who knocked off the Blue Devils each year since they won it all in 2001.  (Indiana, Kansas, Connecticut, Michigan State, LSU, VCU, West Virginia, Villanona.  And that's from memory, sadly.)

So I say fill out your bracket, tuck it away, and root for chaos.  It's always more fun that way.  Pull it out before the Final Four and see if you're in the running to win some cash.  If so, great, now you know who to root for.  If not, continue supporting chaos.  On the morning of one of the greatest days in sports, here are sixteen random tournament-related thoughts.

1)      Is this West Virginia team discernibly different from the one that lost in the first round to Dayton last year?  They're certainly better, but that much better?  Their guard play is still divided between a sophomore that just doesn't quite get it yet and a one-armed gamer who has, well, one-arm.  And don't give me the "Da'Sean Butler Won't Let Them Lose" argument.  The last player with a season as clutch as Butler was Acie Law IV in 2007, and he ended up missing a lay-up against Memphis that knocked the Aggies out.  I could see Missouri giving them a lot of trouble in the second round with the press.  Or they could wax Kentucky in the Elite Eight.  I just don't think they're the lock of locks everyone thinks they are.

2)      Sticking with Kentucky, they have a very difficult draw to the Final Four.  There isn't one team that is clearly dangerous until they'd hypothetically get to the Mountaineers, but there are all sorts of fun, varied tests for a young team.  In the second round they're going to get a very talented but poorly coached Wake Forest or Texas team that could put together a good weekend of hoops.  Then they get Wisconsin, Temple or Cornell, all incredibly smart, slow teams that could hinder Big Blue's immense athletic advantages.  And then in the Elite Eight they could get a bunch of ridiculous, blood-thirsty 6' 9" Mountaineers that will attempt to neutralize the Wildcats' prowess by pounding them into submission.  Tricky, but the Coach Cal + Lottery Pick Point Guard formula has worked out very well the last few years.

3)      I said I like BYU as a sleeper, but I'm very nervous about them even surviving to face Kansas State.  (Who I don't believe in, but honestly, haven't watched played that much beyond the Kansas losses and Texas win.)  They've lost something like a dozen straight first round games, yet they have a guy named Jimmer.  When push comes to shove in the NCAAs, just always pick the team that can shoot, unless they have a huge, huge size disadvantage.  But even then, teams with only one big man have done a lot of damage before falling in dramatic fashion (St. Joes in 2004, Davidson in 2008). 

4)      UTEP/Butler is one of those bullshit small school vs. small school things the tournament does just to screw with people.  UTEP's front line is monstrous and Randy Culpepper can score, but Butler has been here before and won't get rattled, even with the Miners' huge front line.  The winner will either face Vanderbilt - a team I liked all year due to having guard play and a post presence, but who sputtered down the stretch - or Murray State, everyone's favorite Cinderella.  Looking at the Racers' numbers, it's hard not to be impressed, especially when you consider Siena blitzed the Commodores in this same seeding match-up two years ago.

5)      I'm not sure I'm sold on Syracuse, especially if Arinze Onuaku is banged up.  Yes, they dominated the Big East regular season, but Boeheim's track record in the tournament post-Carmelo isn't stellar.  Onuaku is so important to a team where everyone knows its roles so well, he's got to be healthy for the second weekend.  The one factor that would relieve my doubt is if Wes Johnson's health has benefited from the limited action over these last two weeks.  If he can be Carmelo or even Carmelo-lite, then that solves a lot of the Orange's ills.

6)      I'm pretty sure Duke is going to lose in the Elite Eight - if they even make it there - but the trick is figuring out to whom.  Villanova didn't play well late but almost always is great in the tournament, plus they bashed Duke's skull in last year.  Baylor is incredibly balanced and could put a hurting on the Blue Devils.  I even think Notre Dame would match up just fine, but do you really want to risk having your Final Four team go down in the second round (ND vs. Baylor, Villanova against either Richmond or St. Mary's)?  It's very tricky.

7)      Can we salute the logic of the tournament committee for a moment?  Their reason for Duke getting the number three overall seed was that they had done well in the conference and in the conference tournament.  This was apparently very important as long as you were Duke, because Temple did very well in both its conference and conference tournament - in a league that got four teams in the Dance - and got a five seed.   Conversely, Villanova also lost in the first round of their conference tournament, lost to Temple in the regular season and finished fourth in their conference, yet got a two seed.  And never mind the fact that Syracuse's first round conference tournament loss was to a team that A) They'd already beaten twice B) Ended up a three seed and C) Embarrassed Duke when they played this season.  I'm sure the process of putting the bracket together is difficult, but at least be consistent with your logic.

8)      For all the talk about Kansas' stacked bracket, only a few people have pointed out that they don't actually have to play all of those teams, nor the fact that many of those teams didn't have that great of seasons.  Their second round game will be fine, and then they get either Michigan State, who fell apart down the stretch, or Maryland, who played well in a crappy ACC, but really?  We're worried about Maryland?  Then in the Elite Eight they'll get an incredibly stout test from Georgetown or Ohio State, but isn't everyone playing tough teams in the Elite Eight?  And if Tennessee, Georgia Tech or Oklahoma State knock off either the Buckeyes or Hoyas, doesn't the fact the bottom half of their bracket is "loaded" help Kansas? 

9)      I think the best game of the tournament, if it happens, might be Georgetown/Ohio State.  Two teams with short rotations who play interesting styles, with Dallas Lauderdale desperately trying to contain what you'd hope would be an aggressive Greg Monroe and Evan Turner doing all those Evan Turner things (aka everything involved with winning basketball) he does so well.  On top of that, you'd have Diebler, Lighty and Buford against Freeman and Wright on the outside.  There will be games with more talent on the floor, but this game just seems very collegey.  I like its potential for a classic.

10)   I know I've said this before, but Georgetown is a very dangerous team to take too far or not far enough.  With Good Chris Wright constantly trying to stave off his evil doppelganger Bad Chris Wright and Monroe's passivity issues (which he seemed to have solved in the Big East Tournament), you could see them going down to Ohio or making the Final Four.  In the words of Kevin Garnett, anything is possible.

11)   If Notre Dame survives Old Dominion - and that's a giant "if," I am terrified of the Monarchs - their game against Baylor could be one of those second round classics where you're just sad to see either team go so early.  (There are so many, but a few examples: WVU/Wake 2005, Gonzaga/Arizona 2003, Stanford/Marquette 2008, Marquette/Missouri 2003.)  It could also result in Ekpe Udoh getting a dozen blocks in a Bears blowout, but I would sure like to see it just to make sure.

12)   Two games I'm very interested in seeing are Cal/Louisville and Marquette/Washington.  All season we heard that the Big East was one of the top two conferences and the PAC-10 was an embarrassment.  The Cardinals are schizophrenic and the Golden Eagles are small, so there are certainly openings for the underdogs.  Granted, every team is separate, but if Notre Dame, Louisville and Marquette all go down in the first round, you would think that's a rather serious omen for the teams at the top of the Big East.  Or not. 

13)   Texas A&M is just the sort of athletic, defensive team that's given Duke trouble the last half decade (plus remember how they should have beaten UCLA in 2008?), yet I wouldn't be surprised to see them knocked out by Utah State or Siena.  And speaking of Siena, is anyone picking Purdue in that game?  I know this may be over-thinking it, but what if that first half against Minnesota was rock bottom and now the Boilermakers know exactly what they need to do to win without Robbie Hummel?  (I'm over-thinking it.)

14)   When I was in high school back in the early part of the 21^st century, we'd peruse the sports section of the USA Today in the library.  They always had the Sagarin ratings listed for basketball, and the team that was almost always last, without doubt, was Arkansas-Pine Bluff.  Now they're getting visited by Rex Ryan and have the potential to go down in history - seriously, their name would be brought up for as long as this tournament is played - if they beat Duke.  That is pretty cool.

15)   Is there a more unappealing pod than the Pitt/Oakland/Xavier/Minnesota one?  I'm taking Xavier, just because I've watched a lot of Pitt games and I couldn't tell you how they win, beyond playing solid defense and having Ashton Gibbs make a big shot here or there.  I'm telling you, BYU just has to survive until Salt Lake City and they're golden for an Elite Eight appearance at worst.

16)    And finally, and this is important: Anyone who tells you with no uncertainty in their voice that a certain result is going to happen in this tournament is delusional and not to be trusted.  We've all watched this tournament every March for a long while, and save for a 16 or 15 seed winning, nothing is going to surprise me at this point, nor should anything surprise you.  These are twenty year old kids tossed onto the brightest of stages in weird arenas with random crowds, making it the perfect cocktail of maddeningly random results. 

These are four of the greatest days of the year.  Enjoy them.  Cherish them.  But whatever you do, do not take them for granted, because a 96-team behemoth could be on its way to crash our ideal Marchs.