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First Thoughts On The Old Dominion Monarchs

Sorry for the delay, folks, but I was traveling the last couple days and only now have been able to sit down and digest the Fighting Irish's first round opponent.  This seems to be a pretty difficult draw, as Old Dominion is a big, deep, veteran team that's comfortable playing slow.  They've already played a lot of bigger conference teams this year (Missouri, Dayton, Richmond, Mississippi State, Georgetown, Northern Iowa), including a victory over the Hoyas on campus.  They're coming out of the Colonial Athletic Association, a league that's seen some tournament success the last few years with George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth.  The odds of the Monarchs being intimidated by playing a Big East school are somewhere south of zero.

Things revolve around 6' 10" senior Gerald Lee, the only ODU player to average double digits on the season.  Lee is one of the main reasons Old Dominion is highly ranked in 2-point field goal percentage (49.4%, good for 107th) and offensive rebounding rate (42.4%, first in the country).  I'm particularly impressed by Lee's numbers in the game against Mississippi State, because even with Theo Ratliff 2.0 Jarvis Varnado patrolling the paint and collecting five blocks, Lee went 9-for-15 for twenty points.  Complementing Lee on the inside is 6' 8" Frank Hassell, the team's leading rebounder and shot blocker, as well as the second-leading scorer.  Coming off the bench in support of the front line is a very intriguing player in Keyon Carter, another 6' 8" body that can rebound and shoot three at a 35% clip, good enough to lead the team.

And that, friends, is where we find Old Dominion's apparent weakness: they cannot shoot the three.  To their credit, they recognize this and don't shoot that many.  When the treys fall -as they did against Georgetown when the Monarchs hit 7-of-16 - they seem very, very difficult to stop.*  Their guard rotation consists of 6' 1" Darius James, 6' 5" Ben Finney and 6' 5" Kent Bazemore, so some good size in the backcourt as well, making this team's offensive rebounding rate make more and more sense.  This would also lead me to believe Notre Dame could institute the same sort of sagging man they used on Connecticut and Pittsburgh players not named Ashton Gibbs, but perhaps Mike Brey has something else up his sleeve.

* When we discuss the Georgetown game, I think it's important to note that Bad Chris Wright showed up, shooting 2-of-8 and going 0-for-3 from three.  When BCW is in the game, any loss is possible for the Hoyas.

Here is the weird thing about the Monarchs: despite an absurd proficiency for scoring 2-pointers and some very good big men in the post, they barely ever get to the free throw line.  They're not particularly good at shooting as a team when they get there - although Lee, their leading shooter there, is 76% - but I'm excited to crack open 360 and see what kind of offense they run that they're scoring a ridiculous amount of 2-pointers without getting fouled that much.  Crafty Monarchs.

If you're interested in taking your own look at Old Dominion, they have four games on ESPN360, including all of their CAA tournament contests and the win at Georgetown.  I think I'm going to start with their semifinal win over VCU (in overtime) and then move onto to the Hoya victory.  The Irish have been playing great basketball, but this Monarch team seems like a tough, slow, big team that is going to be a very, very difficult out.

~

Some other random stuff:

  • In case you were not aware, the game will start at 12:25 Thursday afternoon from New Orleans, with Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas on the call.
  • Old Dominion is based in Norfolk, Virginia, and has an enrollment of over 24,000 students.  They're a little short on famous alumni I could dig up, so for our purposes this week, focus your hatred on Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander and Cash Cab host Ben Bailey.  Et tu, Ben?
  • Notre Dame is a two-point favorite over the Monarchs, and if you're really feeling confident about their chances, you can get them at 20-1 to advance to the Final Four. 

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More ODU oddities (and some general commentary on offensive and defensive efficiencies)

You’ve highlighted one of the oddities for ODU, that they’re a 2 point/inside team yet they drew very few fouls on the season. I’ll throw in a couple more…

  1. While they’re sensational at offensive rebounding, they’re merely good at defensive rebounding; in fact, it’s one of their weaker defensive stats (though still top 50 in the country).
  2. Despite their relatively significant height (+2.5 effective height per Pomeroy, 30th in the country), they don’t block shots. Their block percentage is 8.7 on Pomeroy, good for #183 in the country. (I’m wondering if there’s not an error there? It seems suspect given their height and the next item.)
  3. Although they do pretty much everything well defensively aside from blocking shots well, ODU excels at defending the three, their three point percentage allowed is only 30.0, 16th in the country per Pomeroy. Yet, their opponents got almost 35% of their points on made three point field goals, which is well above the national average, and the block totals (as noted above) are very pedestrian. The only explanation for this that makes any sense to me is that ODU is enough of a shot-blocking presence that their opponents are afraid to even try two point attempts lest they be swatted and settle for low-percentage threes, bringing up the 3 pt attempt totals, bringing down the 3 pt shooting percentage, and bringing down the block totals.

Aside from Georgetown, the only good team that ODU beat was Virginia Commonwealth (split the season series, won in OT in the conf. tournament). VCU is good offensively (around 30th in adj efficiency) and decent defensively (around 70th in adj efficiency). Other than VCU and Georgetown, ODU has generally seen offenses ranked worse than 50th in adjusted efficiency; ND ranks 5th. Furthermore, Georgetown (33rd) is the only good defensive team the Monarchs have beaten; they lost to Missouri (12th), Dayton (18th), and Richmond (36th). From the Louisville game forward, ND is playing defense like a team ranked about 20th.

All of which is to say that it’s difficult to project how we’ll do, but if we can maintain the same defensive effort we had during the stretch run, we should be in good shape barring a Georgetown-esque shooting performance from ODU.

by Mr Wednesday on Mar 16, 2010 6:39 PM EDT reply actions  

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