I was chatting with my dad on the drive home from work earlier in the week and we started talking about the upcoming football season.  I was telling him how I can't imagine the Irish going 3-0 because that would make me too happy and the pitfalls were too varied to avoid tripping up once.

"Who do you start with again?"

"Nevada, at Michigan and Michigan State."

There was a pause from my dad, who was always a big Penn State/Big Ten fan before I started attending Notre Dame.

"You're not worried about losing to Nevada, are you?"

I couldn't express to him how much I was concerned about losing to Nevada.  Or how a 14.5 point line seems a bit too high (at least half a point too high, Vegas is certainly not being generous, so they're just taking advantage of Irish fans who would trust this team to cover that.)  Or how poorly Notre Dame played last year against a horrid San Diego State team that would get its skull crushed in by the Wolf Pack.  Or for as well as Notre Dame played against Hawaii (a team that Nevada lost to last year, for what is worth), they still put together a pretty miserable November, and yes, as excited as I am for this season, this is not an easy notch in the ol' win column (not that such a thing exists for the Irish at this point).

Let us go over the two biggest reasons for my concern.  The first is a 6' 6" genetically-engineered, football-playing gazelle who lines up at quarterback in the pistol formation.  Junior Colin Kaepernick, reigning WAC Offensive Player of the Year and Chicago Cubs draft pick, burst onto the national scene his freshman season during a Sunday night game against the Broncos of Boise State.  Despite it being his first collegiate start, Kaepernick went blow for blow with Ian Johnson and company, finally falling in the fourth overtime 69-67 in one of the most ridiculously enjoyable games you could ever watch.  Kaepernick has not slowed down since that opening performance where he tossed three touchdowns (to no interceptions) and ran for two more, and he - depending on the health of Jake Locker and the situation at Southern Cal -  will most likely be the best quarterback the Irish face all season.

Kaepernick is scary anecdotally and mathematically.  Just do some cruising on YouTube - I will do it for you, here and here and here - and then put your nerdz cap on and take a gander at this:

Colin Kaepernick was far and away the most effective rushing quarterback in 2008. Combined with a strong backfield mate in Vai Taua (17th among RBs in POE) and the best play-fake this writer has ever seen, Kaepernick has some dangerous weapons at his disposal in 2009. If Nevada can find a decent receiver to replace the steady Marko Mitchell, the Wolf Pack could be scary.

Isn't that nice?  Speaking of Vai Taua, he rushed for 1,521 yards last year, and he has pretty steep competition for best back on the team from Luke Lippincott.  Lippincott was the WAC leading rusher in 2007 with 1,420 yards and 18 total touchdowns before missing the majority of last season with a knee injury.  If the Irish frontline isn't ready for a steady dose of Kaepernick left, Taua right and Lippincott up the middle, it's going to be a long day in South Bend for Tenuta's boys.   Notre Dame gets to see the option every year with the Midshipmen, but Chris Ault's read option is a slightly different beast.

On the other side of the ball, Nevada brings back the only double-digit sack tandem in the nation in Dontay Moch (11.5) and Kevin Basped (10).  The Nevada coaching staff plans on rotating in a lot of guys to keep their studs fresh, but we know who the best two are because they've got the sweet nickname:

That and the give-and-take the Bash Brothers, the duo's self-appointed nickname, give each other during games.

"If one of us gets a sack, we'll go, 'Hey, it's your turn now,'" Moch said. "We do compete a little, because I want that top notch at the end of the year." 

Granted, you get a lot of sack opportunities when the other team is throwing on your every play (more on that in just a moment), but Moch and Basped took advantage of those opportunities.  Anchoring the defensive backfield and causing problems for Jimmy if he decides to bust out the sex cannon instead of throwing it to open receivers is Jonathon Amaya, who was the leading tackler for the Wolf Pack last year in addition to collecting four picks and six pass break-ups.

Holding everything together is middle linebacker Mike Bethea, who will share traffic control duties on defense with Amaya.   Bethea is a junior college transfer that played outside linebacker last year but has moved inside with the departure of Joshua Mauga, who was just waived by the Jets.   We keep hearing about the massive experience on the offensive line, so this will be a great early test for the Young/Duncan combination.  It is important that the Irish protect Jimmy, because good Lord almighty, the Nevada pass defense is atrocious.  Matt went over how bad the Wolf Pack was against the pass last year earlier in the week, but I think it is really worth looking at again, because these numbers are not great:

Pass Attempts Against Per Game- 38.9 (5th most in the nation)

Pass Completions Against Per Game- 20.8 (18th most in the nation)

Completion % Against- 53.56 (24th BEST in the nation)

Yards Per Completion- 14.95 (Worst in the nation)

Yards Per Attempt- 8.01 (12th worst in the nation)

Passing TDs Against- 31 (7th worst in the nation)

Passing Yards Per Game Against- 311.62 (Worst in the nation)

Plays defended per game- 67.9 (68th most in the nation)

% of plays defended that are rushing- 42.7% (2nd lowest in the nation)

% of plays defended that are passing- 57.3% (2nd highest in the nation)

Pass Eff. Defense- 134.74 (85th in the nation)

% of Attempts Picked Off- 3.16% (59th in the nation)

% of Opponents Dropbacks that ended in a sack- 6.81% (42nd in the nation)

While I know there may be some segments of the fanbase who won't consider this game a success unless we rush thirty-plus times, I think the basic game plan should revolve around getting Jimmy some protection and then running Golden and Michael past Nevada's defensive backs and throwing to them.  If you want to mix in some screens, or the occasional power I or maybe some nice tosses to Kyle Rudolph, fine, but I think Weis should just go with the BYU 2005 gameplan until the Wolf Pack proves they can stop the passing attack.

On defense, the Irish are going to have to focus on corralling young Mr. Kaepernick, the first elite-type mobile quarterback they've faced in a couple years.  Minter's defense had no idea how to cope with a quarterback that could run and throw, and the Tenuta/Brown combination hasn't really been tested yet.  If I had to predict, I would think that all the speed and athleticism would cause this Irish defense to match up well, but we're not going to know until the play-actioning and mad-cap quarterback scrambles/sprints-to-the-endzone start.

When you look at the results from the Wolf Pack's games last season, you can see why Notre Dame is a pretty healthy two touchdown favorite, but if the Irish stall coming out of the gate (which happened quite frequently last season), it wouldn't be surprising to see them get into a quick hole, because while they have their issues, the Wolf Pack can straight-up score.  I just keep seeing a hectic Kaepernick touchdown run, followed by a pick six on the ensuing drive and a stunned Notre Dame Stadium crowd staring at a 14-0 hole and a "We can do this!" Nevada sideline.  This Irish team has the talent to play with anyone, but the opening game against the Wolf Pack will be a very solid first test to see if they have the execution.

I hate doing keys to the game, because they're always just variations on the same half dozen things, but if Jimmy just keeps his cool and takes what the Nevada secondary is giving him(because unless things drastically changed, it should be like Christmas morning downfield), I think the Irish stroll into Ann Arbor 1-0.   This is going to be a fun shootout and a great first game for Charlie Weis' 2009 make-or-break season, but in no way is it a gimme.