Autopsy of a Season: 2009 Notre Dame Basketball
While you generally wait for the body to at least get cold, a desire to harvest any healthy organs that might be viable and the slimmest of slim chances this works as a reverse jinx has inspired me to dive into what exactly is wrong with the 2009 Notre Dame basketball team. Last year's squad was one of the best in the Big East, and with everyone coming back save for one Mr. Rob Kurz, it was assumed that infinite glory would belong to Mike Brey's crew. A six-game losing streak later and the Irish aren't even considered on the bubble now, instead battling to keep their chances at going to the NIT alive. What in the hell happened? The same squad that immolated Indiana, knocked off a good Texas team and hung with North Carolina back in November has fallen far from that point, a bunch of winnable games against great competition slipping away, resulting in a particularly nasty funk.
To get started, let's take a look at the numbers. If you're not familiar with what all of them mean, head on over to KenPom for explanations.
|
2008 |
2009 |
|
|
Offensive Efficiency |
116.4 |
116.6 |
|
Defensive Efficiency |
92.4 |
99.6 |
|
Tempo |
70.9 |
69.3 |
|
Effective FG % |
52.2 |
50.5 |
|
Opp. Effective FG% |
46.7 |
48.3 |
|
Turnover % |
18.2 |
13.8 |
|
Opponent TO % |
17.1 |
15.2 |
|
Off Reb % |
35.5 |
33.5 |
|
Opp Off. Reb. % |
30.3 |
31.1 |
|
FTA/FGA |
34.1 |
25.8 |
|
Opp. FTA/FGA |
23 |
26.1 |
|
3P % |
40.5 |
38.8 |
|
Opp. 3P % |
33.7 |
34.2 |
|
2P% |
47.8 |
46.6 |
|
Opp. 2P% |
44.8 |
46.9 |
|
3PA/FGA |
33.6 |
33.9 |
|
A/FGM |
66.5 |
61.4 |
|
SOS Rank |
57th |
21st |
When you lay them out like that, it's actually blindingly simple what happened this season. Notre Dame got a little bit worse - here and there on offense, across the board on defense - and the competition got significantly better. The most damning numbers? On offense, it is the lack of getting to the free throw line and a severe drop in the number of assists per field goals made. On defense, everything is worse, which you would come to expect when you lose a guy that always guarded the other team's best offensive forward and protected the rim to make up for his teammates' mistakes.
I do think some bad luck was also involved as well. If the Irish pull out the win at Louisville, isn't everything different? The RPI, Big East standings, pressure going into Syracuse for the next game? As my friend Mike pointed out yesterday, before the game against Cincinnati, the teams the Irish were losing to weren't just good, they were all, at the very least, Elite Eight contenders. Louisville was there last year, Syracuse has the potential to be deadly and Marquette, Connecticut and Pitt are all going to be battling for one or two seeds. The Irish didn't catch a single break in any of those games, and while it's not an excuse - lots of teams win without catching breaks, or by making their own luck - the ball just kept on rolling down the hill, negative momentum picking up and submarining what was once a very promising Irish season.
Another thing that is apparent about this Irish team is that it's basically the same one as last year, minus Kurz. That's obvious, you say, pointing out that when you only lose one player, your team is going to be similar. But it's not just looking at the roster - the players are basically the same as last year. Harangody has added a few more post wrinkles and a better outside shot to his game and Luke Zeller has become more aggressive on both ends of the floor, but beyond that, is there any difference between the individual skillsets at the end of the Washington State game and right now?
Players that couldn't dribble with their left hand still can't and players that had too many moving parts in their jump shot still resemble a Rube Goldberg machine when pulling up. For whatever reason, Mike Brey has decided that Ty Nash and Carleton Scott weren't worth extended looks, while teams have decided to just blanket K-Mac and make it a four-on-four game when the Irish on our offense. Tory Jackson has been the most affected by the elimination of his wingman, struggling all over the place, from poor passing to an inability to finish at the rim. Because this was an older team, Denny Green would be pleased to know that they all were who we thought they were. With the rest of the Big East getting a whole lot better compared to last year, the Irish were left behind, a casualty of natural selection and Darwinism in conference play.
While the lack of another consistent post option opposite Harangody has been a problem, the losing streak has really shown a weakness in the Irish backcourt. The last few games have been total white-washings by the opposition, with a slew of players dedicating themselves to tying up K-Mac while Tory is unable to really get things started with his favorite gunner out of commission. Deonta Vaughn and Larry Davis outscored Notre Dame 55-24. Levance Fields and Jermaine Dixon won 33-10, with Gibbs and Wanamaker each kicking in 13 off the bench. Against Marquette, Peoples, Jackson and K-Mac notched 27; James, McNeal and Matthews went for 58. Dyson and Price won 28-18 when UConn came to town and against Syracuse, foul trouble limited Andy Rautins, but Eric Devendorf contributed 16 off the bench to help negate K-Mac's best game of the last month. While big men are ballyhooed, you don't win in college basketball without good guard play, something the Irish have been lacking consistently since they came back from the island.
Is there anyway for the Irish to turn it around? A re-dedication to perimeter defense and a sense that offense can be fun again would help, but Notre Dame has found itself in a startling deep hole. A win in Pauley would certainly send things in the right direction, but considering Ben Howland's crew is sporting the third highest offensive efficiency in the country while still maintaining the Howland ideals of mucking up every game on defense, it's going to be tough.
1:00 Eastern time on CBS, a huge chance to save the season. If you're around, hop on Rakes, and we'll watch the season continue to go down in flames together.
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