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Washington At Notre Dame: The Preview

When discussing the Washington Huskies, there are three things to clarify before you get to the heart of the issue.  The first is that while it would be easy to dismiss this team as being the same group that Notre Dame stuffed into a burlap sack and beat senseless with a club for four quarters last year, there is one big, back nine-playing, one-finger-in-the-air difference Irish fans should be familiar with.  The post-Ty Willingham bump - where all of a sudden a team has a purpose, a belief they can win and a coach who is actually around during the week - is a huge one.  Steve Sarkisian has already led this team to two more wins than they had all of last year (the Huskies have two wins this year, so if you carry the seven, you'll see that Ty had zero victories in his final season).

The second thing to realize is that when we're looking at 2009 statistics for the Huskies, they are a little skewed due to one of the toughest opening schedules in country (LSU, USC, at Stanford and 3-1 Idaho, who is respectable as far as creampuffs go).  Sort of like Notre Dame, they haven't had any 1-AA patsies to bump up the yards per game average.  We can still learn things from those stats, but it's important to realize not all early October national rankings are created equal.

And finally, the most important thing for Irish fans to realize is that this year the Huskies have Jake Locker.  He missed the game last year in Seattle, but Locker is a One Man Band capable of doing great things on the football field all by himself.  After ending Boise State's win streak his freshman year, he finally notched the first big conference win of his career against USC, but before that he had given those same Trojans, Ohio State and BYU all they could handle.  His accuracy leaves a little to be desired, but in regards to just putting a team on his back and carrying it, Locker has some broad, talented, mobile shoulders.

(The following video is a good snapshot of Locker's talents.  You get to see him show off the big arm on a seam route, and then see just how much panic he can infuse in a defense when he rolls out and starts rumbling.  Specifically note the amazing throw on the run at 3:50, the kid is very good.  Not fun times.)


The one consistent theme for Washington this season is an inability to stop the opponent's running game.  Although they beat Southern Cal, the Trojans ended up averaging eight yards a carry, while Stanford toted it fifty times for 321 yards (6.4 ypc).  LSU even managed 5.1 yards per rush, and they haven't been able to run the ball very effectively all season.  A lot of the Washington perspectives on this game I've read lead me to believe that Husky fans didn't watch the Notre Dame/Purdue game, as they don't imagine the Irish will just pound the ball down the throat of the opposition.  Weis has already shown he's willing to just run it a dozen straight times, and with Armando Allen coming back healthy, that can only mean an even more dynamic rushing attack.  Washington had good linebackers statistically coming back but it was from the second worst defense in the country last year, and second-leading tackler E.J. Savannah hasn't been practicing all week and is questionable for tomorrow's game.

While they may not be nearly as accomplished as Stanford or Southern Cal's rushing attacks (both top ten in yards per carry and top fifteen in yards per game), Notre Dame has made enough strides this year in the rushing attack that I'm comfortable in them staging long, prolonged drives with a flash of play-action deep to mix things up and take advantage of their burners on the outside.  The longer the Irish offense stays on the field, the longer the Washington offense is on the sidelines, which is a great thing considering, again, Mr. Locker.

Sarkisian's offense has given new life to the top-tier QB prospect, but let's not forget how valiantly the Notre Dame defense slowed a considerably more talented Sarkisian offense in the Coliseum last year.  Despite almost record-setting ineptitude from the offense, the first few Trojan drives being led by 2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Mark Sanchez went a little something like this:

                2 plays, 4 yards, interception

                12 plays, 79 yards, touchdown

                5 plays, 2 yards, punt

                3 plays, 6 yards, punt

After that last three -and-out, Clausen threw a pick and put the defense right back on the field where Joe McKnight popped a big run and the rout was on.  But before they came to the startling realization that there was no way the offense scored - or perhaps even got a first down - on that somber November night, the defense handled the Sarkisian attack well.  This year Sarkisian has considerably less talent across the board, save for the QB1 spot, where Locker adds an entirely new dimension to what Sanchez brought to the table in 2008.

I think the best way to approach this game is similar to how Coach Tenuta schemed against Purdue: limit the blitzing, focus on keeping everything in front of you.  Locker is capable of making all kinds of plays, but he's completing less than 60 percent of his passes this season while the Husky running game hasn't done a whole lot of damage from the tailback position.  (Chris Polk has some potential, but his numbers haven't been that great this season.  But then again, schedule comes into play here.)  If Notre Dame forces Washington to go on long, sustained drive and doesn't blitz seven guys right past Locker so he can comfortably stroll for thirty yards, they'll be in better shape.  Sarkisian isn't calling a dozen designed runs for Locker like Willingham was, but that doesn't mean the legs still aren't lethal.

Considering how talented Locker is and how poor the Notre Dame defense has been playing,  Washington is going to score points, but the Irish shouldn't help them any more than possible.  For the sake of this game, let's pretend that Number Ten is communism and focus on a good ol' fashioned policy of containment.  Let's sit back, make him read a defense and on occasion send a blitz, but mainly use a linebacker or safety in the spy capacity.  The Irish offense will be able to move the ball, so as long as they don't embarrass themselves on defense, this could be a comfortable win going into the bye week.

However, if Locker springs a couple big plays early and Washington keeps hanging around, I can't imagine how tense things around Notre Dame Stadium are going to get.  A loss to Washington isn't the worst thing in the world, but a loss to Washington before the bye week when everyone has way too much time to think about it and emo out?  That might be the worst thing in the world.  I have faith that the offense is going to chew up yardage, clock and the scoreboard, but the defense needs to continue the progress they started making last week in West Lafayette if Irish fans want to avoid a fourth straight last-second thriller.

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Thanks for the Preview

I’ve been waiting for a solid preview all week. Thanks CW.

I don’t think AA is coming back “completely healthy.” He is healthy enough to play and that will be helpful, but I am looking forward to a healthy dose of Hughes. It is going to be sloppy out there on Saturday. The field is going to be wet. It may or may not be raining at gametime. Especially after rewatching, I was very impressed with Hughes’ work in the Purdue game. He seemed like he stopped trying to be somebody else. He just lowered his shoulder and got his 5 yards. If the footing is there I’d love to see AA break a few big runs. If its not, then I hope to see a lot of Hughes pounding it up the middle. Let’s hope JC can go under center.

QB1…oh FNL

by djta on Oct 2, 2009 11:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

And then there is how the weather will affect the outcome

ND should dominate the Huskies, but rain and a sloppy field can be a great equalizer. That said, I think ND does dominate and gets a convincing win.

I was at the Stanford-UW game, and Stanford physically dominated UW ‘s defense. There is nothing subtle about Stanford’s running game, a big back and some big OLs and they come straight at you and smash you in the mouth. Woody Hayes would be proud. ND has no pounding RB like Gearhart, but ND does have good RBs, even if AA is not 100%. This is the OL’s chance to show they should be considered a physically dominating unit by imposing their collective will on the UW defense.

Defensively, I agree containment is the key word, but they cannot be afraid to blitz. ND needs to pressure Locker, who is not a quality pocket passer, so they need to be disciplined when they blitz to keep him in the pocket, otherwise Locker will break out and either run or will buy time to find an open receiver.

And as always on a sloppy field, special teams could be an even a bigger factor than usual. A slippery ball makes special teams gaffes more likely and can give a decided underdog the chances it needs to pull an upset.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Oct 3, 2009 11:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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