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Season Predictions from Yours Truly

CW:  Rob made the most excellent suggestion that we need to get on the record with record predictions, and I whole-heartedly agree.  Since I'm unsure of how the offensive line will improve or who is stepping up to help with some of the deficiencies in the defense, let's just do this with some simple math.  Starting with the win total of Three last year, let's look at things that might bolster or diminish the 2008 regular season win total.  Plus One because Jimmy's arm is healthy, and another plus one because he's got Michael Floyd to throw to.  Plus another one because we don't have to worry about Paul Johnson and/or Georgia Tech, both who gave the Irish trouble in the past, but we subtract one immediately because we also lose Karl Dorrell, always a very generous opponent.  The Irish lose another one because Trevor Laws is gone, but hopefully Tenuta's blitzing makes up for that, so let us tack that one back on.  In regards to the secondary, plus one because we have two safeties who can cover (as opposed to one safety who covers and one who enjoys returning punts).  We'll also add another one because Ambrose Wooden, forever traumatized by Fourth and Nine and the Mario Manningham Game, has moved on, but lose one because Darrin Walls was probably going to be pretty good. 
 
Plus one because Charlie claims the team is going to be a power running squad, but subtract one because you can't trust anything Charlie says in the preseason ( or possibly ever).  Plus one because Notre Dame hit rock bottom last year, and there's nowhere to go but up, but minus one because this is indeed Notre Dame, and there must be at least one heart-breaking, soul-crushing loss (probably to Boston College).  Before you start adding up the final tally, remember to add a whopping two wins because special teams "captain" and should-have-been-fourth-string running back Travis Thomas is no longer around to pick up ridiculous penalties and rush for negative yardage. 
 
Using the amazing power of arithmetic, that's an eight win regular season for the Irish, as I can't use this fool-proof system to predict a bowl game with an unknown opponent and location.  8-4 is my official prediction, although you can almost guarantee I'll be wrong. 

Star-divide

Rob: If you asked me what record we'd finish with only a few weeks ago, I would have told you 6-6 or 7-5 at best. Last year really sobered me up about Notre Dame football; I'm not sure how it could have been any different for anybody else. But I've seen this team practice once and heard from a lot of people I know that this team is light years ahead of where it was last year. That is a credit to both Charlie Weis' staff and the players themselves. I believe they've all worked hard to put themselves in the position to win some ball games.

The one thing that worries me about this team is that it is still relatively young. Save for a few seniors and a handful of juniors, this team is still made up of primarily sophomores in the starting line-up and a lot of freshmen in the two-deep. The ‘Rock Report' mentioned a few weeks back that almost all of our position's best players are sophomores, which is truly amazing. The good news is that they're very talented and with the right confidence, could be some special players. I think the week off last week was good for the team to allow them to gain some more reps and mentally get ready for the football season. And despite the utter shittiness of having to play San Diego State, that team is bad enough where we should just roll over them and that will also do wonder's for the young team's psyche.

Looking at the schedule, there are a number of games that we should win. But you could probably say that about last year, too. We've got a lot of opportunity in 2008 and I think the team knows that. The schedule is favorable and the timing is just right for a solid season. We're probably another year away from competing with USC, but eliminate that game and you've got 11 other games that you should be competitive in. Although I originally thought we'd be a .500 team, I feel like this team has a lot more attitude than last year and they'll put everything on the line. With that, I'm going to predict 9-3. Now let's go get drunk and tailgate...

Matt: We were 3-9 last year. Not talking about it doesn't mean that it didn't happen. I believe in the strength and fortitude of our young Irish team, and, if this were say gymnastics or some other individual sport, I would love our chances to bounce back in remarkable fashion. However, this is football, and football is war. Yes, we're bigger, stronger, faster (?), more experienced and so on, but we still have to line it up game after game against opponents, many of which the Notre Dame showdown will be the biggest game of their season (see: SDSU, Purdue, Stanford, UNC, Washington, Pitt, BC, Navy, Syracuse and USC). That is hardest thing about being the Irish: detractors may call us irrelevant, they may call us washed up, but everyone wants to beat us, to beat the magic associated with Notre Dame.

And this is where the Irish will struggle this season. We're still too young a team to deal with the pressure of being Notre Dame game in and game out. I love our talent, I love our heart, but I don't love our youth.

Are we doomed? Not at all. In fact, if you believe the rhetoric, Weis's stepping down from calling plays and allowing Heywood to take the reins could simplify our offense and neutralize some of our youth. Another sip of the Kool-Aid can easily convince you that Tenuta's high-flying exuberance should keep our D hungry and flying around the field.

There is the glimmer of hope. If we can play, just play without thinking, this season could be a remarkable turn-around. That's the onus on Weis heading into his fourth season. Can he get his players to just play and not worry about screwing up on national television with the wholeworldwatchingandCharlieabouttopullmeand... down goes Clausen!

Honestly, nothing we've seen in the last three years should lead the Irish faithful to believe that Weis is this kind of head coach (also known as a college coach). In 2005 and 2006 he had experience, he had Brady, he had the advantage of being the new guy on the block with the hip pro-style offense. In 2007, Weis's gaffes are well documented: the spread package, the lack of hitting in summer camp and on and on it goes.

So, I'm going with what we've seen so far until I'm shown otherwise. Seven and five. That's my prediction. Just like in '05, '06 and '07 we'll beat most of the teams we're supposed to beat, lost to the teams that should beat us and drop a game or two that we shouldn't. Here's what it looks like:

San Diego State: Should win, will win.
Michigan: Should win, will lose.
@Michigan State: Should lose, will lose.
Purdue: Should win, will win.
Stanford: Should win, will win.
@UNC: Should win, will lose.
@Washington: Should win, will win.
Pittsburgh: Should win, will win.
@Boston College: Should lose, will lose.
@Navy: Should win, will win.
Syracuse: Should win, will win.
@USC: Should lose, will lose.

Seven and five. Do I want us to beat Michigan? Yes. Do I want us to beat UNC? Yes. Do I think our team can get out of their heads and just play? No. If I were to put odds on Tenuta and Heywood helping us play loose and fast and fearless, I'd put it at 3 to 1. That's a 75% chance that we end up 7-5 and a 25% chance we end up 9-3. Weighted average puts us at 7.5-4.5, but, after I stood through my senior year watching the worst Notre Dame Football Team EVER, I'm a bit of a pessimist.

 

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good work fellas

some were throwing out 10-2 predictions like it was nothing last year.

i think 8-4 is the ultimate goal and any rational Irish fan would (should) be thrilled by that. 7-5 with a bowl win is adequate as well, and wouldn’t cause me to lose any sleep.

i know it seems ridiculous because this team was 3-9 last year, but after looking at how the schedule shapes up, i think 6-6 would be an underachievement. it’s certainly in the realm of possibility, but it would probably require losses to every half-way decent team ND plays (throw Purdue and Pitt into UM, MSU, BC, USC). that would mean under-whelming victories over SDSU, Navy, Cuse, Stanford, Washington, and North Carolina. i think 5-7 would be a worst-case scenario, although last year kinda redefined the word “worst-case” eh?

the sure wins are Syracuse and San Diego State. the only for sure loss is at USC. of the other games, this is what I’m hoping for:

Group A: Michigan, @MSU, Purdue, Stanford —> 3-1 goal (at least 2-2?)
Group B: @UNC, @Ty, Pitt, @BC, @Navy —> 3-2 goal (though 2-3 is a 40-50% probability)

With wins over SDSU and Cuse and a guaranteed loss at SC, that would mean 8-4 as a goal, and 7-5 as a likelihood.

by SBakerTheTouchdownMaker on Sep 5, 2008 9:37 PM EDT reply actions  

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