Last Week: 4-6

Overall: 21-12 (2-1 Lead Pipe Locks)

Oh, Vegas, you are good.  After cleaning up in weeks one and two, the Upsets started to happen and now the lines are firmly in the "Ehhhh?" zone of being super difficult to pick.  After a rough week three, the Gamblin' Man attempts to give you advice on who to pick (or pick against, if you agree with me in the fact I wager sheet has cooled off).  A fun, fun weekend of college football, centered around (where else?) the SEC.

East Carolina (-7) over NC STATE - Even though the Wolf Pack barely covered at Clemson last week, East Carolina's starting QB and head coach aren't snipping at each other, so advantage Pirates.  Skip Holtz's crew barely survived against Tulane and lost linebacker Quentin Cotton to injury, but I refuse to believe NC State is any good until they provide even the smallest bit of evidence to the contrary.  I say East Carolina realizes the need to secure another big win over a BCS opponent after last week's near-slip and deliver.

Alabama (-9.5) over ARKASAS - The Tide also struggled with Tulane, while Arkansas has barely stumbled through an opening month of near losses to Western Illnois and Louisiana-Monroe to reach this point.  Maybe Bobby Petrino's offense begins to gel, but I think it's more likely Nick Saban's team regains their Clemson-like edge as they get into SEC play.

GEORGIA TECH (-7.5) over Mississippi State - Tech is farther along in their new offense than Auburn is, they're playing at home and, sweet heavens, did you see the Bulldogs on Saturday night?  That half point is perilously dangling there, but come on, Mississippi State?  Paul Johnson hasn't let me down yet, and I see no reason to believe he's going to slip up at home in a vaguely exciting non-conference showdown.

Florida (-8) over ROCKY TOP - I think the Tennessee game last year was the first time a lot of people went "Wow, that Tim Tebow kid can play some ball."  This team won't be fazed by Neyland, especially since that Tennessee loss at UCLA just isn't looking bad, it slightly resembles a Wall Street investment firm.  Plus Percy Harvin is back and feeling good, which doesn't bode well for a defense he tormented in The Swamp last year.

MIZZOU (-34.5) over Buffalo - No disrespect to the Buffalos, but the longer they stick around, the more opportunity for Chase Daniel to throw touchdown bomb after touchdown bomb.  Twelve touchdowns in his last thirteen drives?  The poor Bulls won't know what hit them.

NORTH CAROLINA (-3) over Virginia Tech - Vegas says toss-up, and I agree, but I don't think the Hokies have enough offensive bite to put this out of reach.  Still, the Tar Heel confidence must be topping out after the rout of Rutgers, and they're playing at home in front of what should be a very enthusiastic fan base.  Tyrod Taylor's legs keep it interesting for a while, but Butch Davis' youth is served as they take the reins of the ACC (at least for one week).

Ball State (+3) over INDIANA - It wouldn't be football season if Indiana was blowing an early game against a MAC team (Ed. Note: As noted in the comments, Indiana's early season MAC struggles must be some sort of figment of my imagination, or else I was just thinking Southern Illinois was a MAC team.  Apologies for spreading rampant lies.)   As noted in the comments, this is apparently some weird thing I imagine..  Plus, Ball State is really good, with their flirtation with perfection continuing for a while.  Don't expect that Bloomington crowd to be a big factor, even at night.  A very tenuous lead pipe lock.

AUBURN (+3) over LSU - LSU, on top of not facing an opponent with a pulse yet, has had their schedule totally screwed up by Mother Nature.  This game is always super close, meaning it's probably smart to take whoever is getting the points, especially if that teams happens to be playing at home and sporting a ball-busting defense that's going against a green QB. 

Wake Forest (+5) over FLORIDA STATE - So the Demon Deacons own the ‘Noles the last few years, show that they have the same sort of good defense/Riley Skinner combination of the last two years and they're underdogs?  You can say that perhaps Jim Grobe's team will be intimidated by playing in Tallahassee, but you'd be forgetting they won thirty-love there in 2006.  People will continue to underrate Wake Forest, and they will continue to win.  Hopefully.

 ARIZONA STATE (+7) over Georgia - Last week was a classic trap game for the Sun Devils, who were obviously looking forward to this hayooge match-up with the Bulldogs, who travel west of the Mississippi for the first time since the heated JFK-Nixon election of 1960 ("SEC!  SEC!  SEC!").  Maybe Matty Stafford and company were also looking ahead, but they needed a bunch of breaks to survive in Columbia, while ASU gave a SEC team fits last time they hosted one (LSU's miracle victory in 2005).  Those events aren't really related, but I can see Rudy Carpenter throwing balance to the wind, chucking it deep and securing the upset.