Michigan Eye For The Notre Dame Guy: Maize N' Brew Dave Tells You Everything You Need To Know About The Wolverines
Dave said he was going write me a preview of this year's Michigan team. He did not say he was preparing me a thesis paper on them. If you have any questions regarding Michigan personnel after this post, I'm not sure anyone can help you.
Hey Domers. How's it going? CW and I got to talkin' over the off season and realized that neither of us had a clue what to make of each other's teams. We also realized we didn't have a clue what to make of our own teams when the discussion began. What a difference a year makes, eh? We've both already got wins! Even better, both teams managed to avoid losses that are measured in biblical terms. (Even if it's just barely missing).
As you've probably gathered from the mass media, things are a tad bit different this year in Ann Arbor. The only thing linkings last year's team, and for that matter the 30 years before it, to the present are the hold over players and the helmets. I'm sure you're aware we're running the spread. I'm sure you've heard about the off season departures. I'm sure you've heard about strife in the clubhouse and problems with the faithful adjusting to Rodriguez. Let me address those in order.
One. We're running the spread. We're not running it well. But we're running it.
Two. The only off season turmoil was getting rid of guys who didn't want to put in the effort. Does it hurt to lose talented linemen? Sure. Does it hurt to lose talented linemen who can't block anyone or can't lift anything more than a pizza? Not so much. No one has said anything bad since those departures and everything I'm hearing is this is a very tight knit group that is enjoying playing together. Even through the challenges of a new coach and a new system.
Three. The only people making a big deal about Rodriguez being anything other than a great coach are the media and people from other fan bases. Rodriguez has been embraced with both arms by the Michigan faithful. We like him. We like what he's doing. We trust he'll make us a contender in short order. Are there going to be bumps along the way? Yeah. But we knew that when we bought in. Since Rodriguez got to Ann Arbor there have been no off field issues, the players are competing harder, and everyone is getting excited. We like this guy. A lot.
Now that all that nonsense is sorted out, lets talk about the Michigan team you'll see Saturday.
Obviously, Michigan's biggest question mark and problem position is at Quarterback. But you knew that already. You can't lose a four year starter at any position and not have a drop off, its even harder at QB. On Saturday you'll see 6'6" Steven Threet start the game and be spelled occasionally by 6'1" Nick Sheridan. In terms of pedigree, Threet's the thoroughbred. Threet was a former Elite 11 quarterback, cannon arm, and surprisingly mobile for a Michigan quarterback under the old system. He's had two moderate showings against Utah and Miami (Ohio), but he runs well enough to make defenses aware of him, and if he can keep from throwing the ball ten feet above his receivers he's going to be dangerous. In terms of the overthrows, it's hard to be tough on a guy who's started a grand total of one game in college and is playing behind a patchwork line that is learning a new system. But his free pass ends on Saturday. Even though Threet hasn't been great, he's definitely far more mobile than the armchair he was reported to be and has a tremendous upside because of the strength of his arm. What he doesn't seem to do well is throw on the run, so if Michigan starts calling a lot of roll outs Notre Dame will be happy. Notre Dame will also be happy if Threet is forced to throw medium routes on 3rd down. He hasn't hit a single one of them yet. Sheridan will spot Threet at some point, but why is unclear. The staff doesn't have any faith in his ability to throw a ball more than ten feet (nor should they), and he is considerably more tentative than Threet in his running and decision making. Threet's the better quarterback, but he hasn't shown that yet. If he does, then Michigan is in business. If Michigan's shuffling quarterbacks the whole game it's not a good sign for the Maize and Blue.
Other than quarterback, the Offensive Line is Michigan's biggest question. The line left to right will be either former walk on Brian Nowiki (6'9" 340) or Perry Dorrestein (6'7" 313); Tim MacAvoy (6' 6" 288); center David Molk (6'1" 282); David Moosman (6'5" 292); and Steve Schilling (6'5" 295). The line, with the exception of planet sized Nowiki, is comprised of good to highly regarded recruits. However, going into Saturday's game, the line is even more depleted than usual. Starting left tackle Mark Ortmann dislocated his elbow during the Miami game and projected starting left guard Corey Zirbel is out till at least the end of October with a bum knee. Even though the line is thin, Michigan fans did see some improvement during the Miami game. Most notably the work of Moosman and Schilling paved the way for most of Michigan's bread and butter rushing yards. On the left side, while pass protection wasn't great, it appeared the line held its own on rushing downs, clearing holes for two huge runs by Shaw and McGuffie respectively. A concern that continues to rear its ugly head is simply the size of center David Molk. Molk is a tough player and strong as an ox, but he's small for the position and has gotten overpowered at times. But then again he's also had some good blocks. Maybe it's just a matter of time, but it's something to watch for. Blitz pickup, surprisingly, hasn't been an issue yet, though I'm sure Notre Dame will bring the house on as many occasions as possible. Part of Michigan's ability to avoid dealing with the problems blitzes present are quick game planning and going to max protect on passing
downs. These reactions present problems in their own right, but they've helped keep our quarterbacks upright. In all honesty, the line has performed far better than I expected it would, but Saturday is the real test.
The biggest skill position surprise has been true freshman Sam McGuffie totally supplanting two returning, highly touted, tailbacks in Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown. In both cases injuries have played a role, but McGuffie has proven not only to be explosive in the traditional rushing sense, but an outstanding pass catcher and above average pass blocker. These simply aren't things you get out of a freshman running back. The explosive speed on Michael Shaw (who tweaked a groin against Miami, and I don't care what anyone tells you, that means he's questionable) has made the freshman duo one of the most pleasant surprises of the year. Additionally, their emergence makes Michigan's backfield arguably the deepest in the Big Ten. What I'm still waiting to see is more of Brandon Minor. Minor's TD run against Miami was the type of tough run you expect from a veteran guy that McGuffie hasn't quite delivered yet. If Minor is healthy you'll probably see more of him than Miami did, but this looks like McGuffie's show from here out.
On the wings Michigan is loaded with all kinds of young talent, but 90% of it is fairly useless because Michigan lacks a true passing game right now. The "veteran" receiver of the group, Greg Matthews is questionable for Saturday with various injuries, so it's entirely possible Michigan could start all freshmen and sophomores (redshirt or true) on Saturday. The guy I want to see a lot more of is Junior Hemmingway. Of the group, he's Michigan's only pure deep threat and has pulled in Michigan's only "true" passing touchdown on a 33 yard bomb from Threet. He fast. In terms of little guys to be wary of, watch for the offense to try to put the ball in the hands of micron sized Martavious Odoms, a five-foot-nothing superball in a winged helmet. Think a small version of Noel Devine in both shiftiness and speed. Two other young receivers worth watching are Toney Clemens and Darryl Stonum. Both were uber WR recruits, and both have found ways to get open this year. If Threet can get them the ball (the ultimate question), then they've got the talent to make things happen.
While Offense is still somewhat of a question mark, the defense is a far better known quantity. Despite some early struggles, the defense has given up a total of 9 points in the last six quarters of football. New DC Scott Shafer seems to finally have his finger on what this unit is capable of, though I still think some of his play calling getting sorted out. Whatever zone he's employing against spread teams needs to be scraped immediately. However, as Notre Dame appears to be a more traditional pro style offense and Shafer has already seen this offense while at Stanford last year I think he'll have a good game plan. Even so, the game on defense will come down to two things: 1) Linebacker play; and 2) Stevie Brown.
By this point you're probably familiar with the Michigan defensive line. I know Clausen is.
Michigan returns almost its entire defensive line. Senior Tim Jamison (DE), Will Johnson (NT), Terrance Taylor (DT), and Brandon Graham (DE) are all back. While Taylor certainly controls the middle of the field, the key is probably Tim Jamison. Even though Graham gets the pub, Jamison has been somewhat of a gage for how the defense plays. When he's on his game, the whole line plays better. When he's not, the line takes a step back. The thing that's worth noting is this group is not giving up anything on the ground and they're getting to the quarterback. While a portion of that pressure is attributable to blitzes, as the game wears on, Michigan gets stronger. It's not a chuck Norris type homage to Mike Barwis, it's true. The second half of both games belonged to Michigan's defensive line. So if you're going to get to them, get to them early. Expect to see some of Max Martin (DT) and Ryan Van Bergen (DE) as the game goes on. Both were touted recruits who've shown great motors this year.
Graduation took its toll on Michigan's linebacking corps depth, but I can't tell you one way or the other if that's a good thing or a bad thing. Shawn Crable's departure hurts mostly on the loss of his raw talent, but I can't say I miss his decision making. And Chris Graham? He was good at hitting things that had nowhere else to go, and not so much at the other things. The sole returning starter is redshirt sophomore Obi Ezeh. Ezeh was a converted full back last year, but over a summer seems to have developed into a legitimate middle linebacker. He's already been awarded Big Ten Player of the Week honors for his 15(!) tackles in the Utah game. While he wasn't as good as the award or the number say, he light years ahead of where he was last year and has become a leader on defense. Whomever's going to be flanking him is still somewhat of a mystery. At this point Jonas Mouton appears to have seized one of the OLB slots with a good second half against Utah and a good game against Miami. While he still made several mistakes in his reads and allowed some easy outside yards to Miami's running backs, I think he's going to continue to improve and was directly or indirectly responsible for several excellent stops. On the other side it appears senior John Thompson will start against Notre Dame. Thompson is serviceable. He's slow, his tackling skills are meh, and he ain't that good in coverage, but he's better than Curtis Painter or Martell Evans who will back him up. As you pointed out in your preview, coverage and dink and dunk passes are this group's biggest weaknesses. Mouton and Ezeh are pure athletes who will get better as time goes on, but I Thompson is pretty much what you see is what you get. After Ezeh and Mouton, the talent and ability level drops off a cliff.
The secondary is a fairly solid group. Donovan Warren is the next great Michigan/Big Ten cornerback and Morgan Trent, though I don't think he's first round material, is definitely fast enough and good enough to play in the NFL every Sunday. Trent had an okay day against Miami but has been incredibly consistent since the third game of 2007 and truly can cover anyone. Warren is my pick as Michigan's best defensive player. Seriously. The kid is awesome. He's a ball hawking, run supporting, you-can't-throw-to-one-side-of-the field-because-of-me kind of corner. Arguably, this is the best tandem in the Big Ten. At safety is the diminutive Brandon Harrison. Harrison is all of five foot nothing but plays like a 6'2" 250 linebacker with wheels. He just makes plays. Whether stripping a sure touchdown, blowing up a screen, being a rock in pass coverage, Harrison is Michigan's safety valve in the defensive backfield. His backfield mate, Stevie Brown, has all the skills to be something special. Tall, big, runs like the wind, and hits like a train. He just can't cover anyone. He'll alternate solid play with boneheaded mistakes. If he gets it together, this is the Big Ten's best secondary. If he doesn't, it'll be a good group that gives up the inopportune big play from time to time. In the nickel packages expect to see Artis Chambers and Charles Stewart. Both a decent players but I don't have enough of a sample size on Chambers and Stewart hasn't done anything good enough or bad enough for me to take notice.
While Zoltan hasn't been the space emperor we all thought he'd be, and frankly he hasn't even been a space viceroy so far, he's been decent. He's got the leg to put the ball in orbit but is incredibleinconsistent. On returns Boubacar Cissoko is the man to watch. Another of Michigan's jiggerbug players, BooBoo is lightning in a 5'9" frame. He could be the next Steve Breaston on returns. I mean that. TheDonovan Warren experiment at punt return seems to be drawing to aclose, so expect to see BooBoo back on punts as well.
There's your scouting report in a nutshell, Domers. While the national media will be focused elsewhere, yours truly will be in South Bend with my Domer wife. If you see some people tossing bean bags on a set made out of one Michigan board and one Notre Dame board, that's us. Drop by and say hi.
See you on Saturday and Go Blue!
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