NORTHWESTERN (-11.5) over Syracuse – It just seems like good sense to bet against Greg Robinson and the Orange, especially when they’re on the road and going against a Northwestern team returning quality offensive threats in the backfield and eight starters on defense.  Could Northwestern be going bowling for only the fourth time this millennium?  If they sweep their opening month of Syracuse, Duke (who cost them a bowl game last year with the upset), Southern Illinois and Ohio, they just need to steal a couple games in conference play to qualify.

PITTSBURGH (-13.5) over Bowling Green – I don’t know why I have such faith in Dave Wannstedt, but there just seems to be too much talent for the Falcons to overcome, even though they should be fielding a competitive squad in the MAC this year.  If we were assigning confidence points to games, this would not be highly rated.  If Bill Stull can be as sharp as the practice reports claim he’s been so far this summer, the lanes opening up for LeSean McCoy should cover this spread – barely.

EAST CAROLINA (+9.5) over Virginia Tech – You might remember the Hokies for their early season struggles last season, when they barely prevailed over East Carolina at home before being curb-stomped at LSU.  They lose all their big names on defense (Abidi, Hall and Flowers are all gone), leading rusher Branden Ore and dynamic QB change-of-pace Tyrod Taylor.  East Carolina isn’t at full power, but they are at home, in the first game of the season and with the benefit of an early start time that may catch Frank Beamer and Company yawning.

FLORIDA (-35) over Hawaii – Hawaii doesn’t have anything left, with Colt Brennan in Washington and June Jones in Dallas coaching SMU.  Florida can put up absurd numbers (45 or more 8 times last season, 50-plus four times) and is playing in the comfort of The Swamp.

Utah (+3.5) over MICHIGAN – The Michigan defense is good enough to avoid hitting rock bottom, but the offense?  As long as Rich Rodriguez’s system doesn’t need experience at the quarterback, running back, wide receiver or offensive line position, then they should be fine.  This is an early season game against a spread offense, and if we take anything away from last year, a Michigan defense stout most of the season got tore up in this situation against Appalachian State and Oregon.

Oklahoma State (-7) over WASHINGTON STATE – Mike Gundy, now a man of the ripe old age of 41, doesn’t have to deal with Bobby Reid, but he also loses his best receiver and running back.  This is pretty much a bet based solely on Zac Robinson being seven points better than anything they’re fielding in Pullman.

Southern Cal (-20) over VIRGINIA – It really doesn’t matter who is playing quarterback for the Trojans, or how healthy he is.  They’re going to shut out the Cavaliers, score two defensive touchdowns and get a Joe McKnight punt return.  They already have the spread covered, so when you factor in the TD catch by Damian Williams and CJ Gable squirting loose for another long score, then this is really easy money, reminiscent of the Arkansas games of yesteryear.

OLE MISS (-7.5) over Memphis – Houston Nutt rolls into Oxford and a cupboard the Orgeron kept very fairly well stocked.  He’s got an experienced offensive line (featuring MIKE OHER!) and Texas transfer Jevan Snead.  If Nutt can just find a running back to plug into the hole left by All-Name team starter and thousand-yard rusher Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis, the Rebels might go bowling for the first time since Eli Manning.

Michigan State (+4.5) over CALIFORNIA – There’s something to be said for having a heady senior quarterback, a 1500 yard rusher returning, a lot of close losses in ’07 and some experience on defense.  Cal always has talent, but it’ll need to fill some holes, including replacing all their receivers and leading rusher Justin Forsett, all while stabilizing the Kevin Riley/Nate Longshore QB Carousel of Death.  I also don’t think anyone has ever been that intimidated by playing in Berkeley (unless you’re afraid of hippies raining feces down upon you from their tree homes).

Alabama (+5) over Clemson – Such a tough call here, but I think it boils down to Bowden vs. Saban, an advantage that benefits the Tide.  Plus, doesn’t it always seem smart to bet against the ACC in out-of-conference play, especially against the SEC?  I also want to see the look on Tiger fans (both Clemson and Auburn) when Julio Jones hauls in his third jump ball touchdown of the game.  As good as the James Davis/CJ Spiller tandem is (and oh, they are good; remember that ’06 game versus Georgia Tech where it seemed like they had reinvented how to rush the ball?), Terry Grant was having a helluva season for the Tide before a hip injury knocked his producting down.  A very exciting, enigmatic game to highlight the weekend.

Missouri (-9) over Illinois – My second lockiest game of the week after Southern Cal/Virginia, the wheels will continue to come off of the Ron Zook train following the Rose Bowl.  They lose the heart of their offense (Mendenhall) and the heart of their defense (Leman) while Chase Daniel is still there to toss up epic numbers for the Tigers.  Eight starters on defense return for a Mizzou team that, remember, only lost to Oklahoma last season and blew out Nebraska, Texas Tech, Kansas and Arkansas last season.

This is so random and so awesome I had to post it.