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A Look At The Top 10: Who will end up on top at the end of '08?

With the season starting – grab a loved one, crack open a beer and smile – on Thursday freaking night, it's about time to take a walk through the Top 25.  As pumped as I am for the Irish to take the field against their traditional enemy, the Aztecs, this extended weekend of kickoff action is just as exciting for me.  I love Notre Dame, but I love football just as much, and I like to have a very good idea of what is going on across the collegiate pigskin nation.

 

As far as polling goes, I split my voting into two distinct areas.  The preseason poll is simply a meter of how good I am at predicting (Spoiler alert: Not very), just trying to guesstimate where teams will end up when the dust is settled after the mythical national championship.  Every other poll throughout the course of the season is done strictly on resume voting, which looks very screwy throughout September (and makes some of the other writers on this site quite upset with your intrepid voter), but it works considerably better in the end.  I can't even listen to someone who believes in power polls or the "I can tell you who would win on a neutral field" argument without laughing and desiring to lead pipe them to the face (like you used to be able to do in Clue).

 

Just believe this, folks: I know you've watched South Florida play about a quarter and a half while flipping between 30 Rock that one Thursday night game, but you do not know exactly how they'd match up with Team X from Conference Y.  The resume ranking still has an amount of subjectivity to it (of course), but it grounds it a little more in reality, numbers and facts to point at beyond "I saw them play and I know."

 

Using the initial BlogPoll, in which I ranked Southern Cal number one followed by a kerfluffle of other teams I find it very difficult to distinguish between at this early hour, some thoughts on the top-ish tier of teams. 

 

(Also, I don't have that many vendettas when it comes to college football.  They mostly develop during the season, so if you're a partisan for one of the teams mentioned, don't take it personally.  Please please please correct me on anything I totally miss, because while I put in the research time for these, rosters are fluid and things get missed.)

 

1) GeorgiaThe Bulldogs have a lot of the important parts coming back, with 9 starters (six of the top seven tacklers) returning from a defense that got downright dominant as the season progressed and a backfield combo of experienced youth that combined for 37 touchdowns in 2007.  UGA does not pass all that often, so the lack of a big-time receiver isn't particularly hurtful (high man holdover is Mohamed Massaquoi, who had 32 grabs last season), because hey, you've got Knowshon Moreno, the whole offense thing gets relatively simple.

 

Still, the offseason has not come without problems for the Bulldogs.  The two departures from the defense were their leaders in sacks and interceptions, and then injury unfairly struck down starting left tackle and All-Name team shoe-in Trinton Sturdivant.  When you recruit as well as Mark Richt does, these are not huge, gaping problems, but they still need addressed.  Young Matthew Stafford will also have to hone down the picks a bit, because you need to do slightly better than 19:10 to survive undefeated.

 

The most glaring problem for the Dawgs is the schedule, which seems to be unfairly colluding with the Fates to deny them their mythical national championship chance.  They must travel to South Carolina (who knocked them off in Athens last year), Arizona State (their first trip outside the south for a road game ever, or something like that), LSU, Kentucky and Auburn, plus the Cocktail Party versus Florida, plus home games against Alabama, Rocky Top and Georgia Tech.  And, oh yeah, if they survive all that, it'll likely be a rematch against Auburn or LSU in the SEC Championship game.  That just isn't the type of schedule one can navigate undefeated, no matter how talented they are.  LSU made the title game with two losses last year, but that's an aberration, not the norm, and I just don't see anyway Georgia makes it through the season untainted, and therefore, number one.

 

2) Ohio StateEverything for Ohio State hinges on the September 13th game with Southern Cal.  If they lose that, then no matter of Big Ten dominance will be able to dispel the memories of the Januarys from the minds of voters and fans, while a victory there sets them up nicely for a merry run through their conference.  Road trips to Wisconsin, Michigan State and Illinois might be tricky, and home dates with Penn State and Michigan could cause trouble, but there shouldn't be anything in-conference that will derail a team returning pretty much everybody of note.

 

Predictions right now say that a lot of hardware will be going to the Buckeyes come December, and that seems like an incredibly safe prediction.  Criminally overrated linebacker James Laurinaitis will win any and all defensive awards of note, while Chris "Beanie" Wells will be a deserved Heisman favorite.  The Todd Boeckman-to-Robiskie and Hartline connection, while not staggering in production last season, was good enough to keep defenses honest against the run.   Throw in potential all-world X factor Terrelle Pryor, and there's no reason to think the offense won't keep chugging along while the defense continues oppressing.

 

But then again, you all saw the games against Florida and LSU right?  Wastes of your extended-Christmas and New Years holiday?  A lot of these players were here for one if not both of those, and it doesn't seem like the kind of thing you can just forget.  While the internets were abuzz with "OMG Speed Killz," the real downside was just really stupid errors from the Buckeyes, including "Not tackling," "dropping passes" and "Heisman winners totally imploding."  Can The Senator right the ship?  If they don't come out of Troy alive, it won't matter.

 

3) Southern Cal – My pick for number one, just because it's always easy to spring to the top of the polls – one early loss to Ohio State or not - with nationally broadcast beatdowns of Notre Dame and UCLA to end the season.  As I say in this space nearly every year, say what you will of Pete Carroll and his program, but they do not shirk in their non-conference scheduling.  This year it's a trip to Virginia to open the season and the epic clash with Ohio State, both of which should be manageable, with or without Mark Sanchez.  As far as conference play goes, the Trojans get all the tough ones at home after traveling to Berkeley, Eugene and Tempe last year. 

 

But then again, no one saw the war machine losing to UCLA, Oregon State or Stanford the last two years, or being pressed like they did by the likes of Washington last year.  They always right the ship in elaborate, January fashion (poor Michigan and Illinois felt their wrath), but with logjams of talent (some of it proven, some of it not so much), will those position battles result in the best shining brightest or a never ending Lazy Susan of roster switches resulting in another shocking loss?  It feels like a comfortable bet to say the Trojans will be winning a BCS bowl when the dust settles (they've done so 5 of the last 6 years, all in extremely comfortable fashion), but will it be in the mythical national championship game or another Rose Bowl?  It's not like either result is bad, but I imagine the folks in Troy would like to return to the glory days of '03/'04.

 

Biggest questions for the Trojans personnel-wise?  Figuring things out at QB – especially if one of the replacements particularly shines with Sanchez out, leading to a controversy – will be the first priority.  Protecting the QB might be a problem as well, since they return only one starter from a line that wasn't overly dominant last season.  They're still waiting for a wide receiver to step up to Dwayne Jarrett/Mike Williams/Steve Smith level, and while there are plenty of candidates, none have done so yet.  You could make that exact same statement and substitute in "running back" and "Reggie Bush/LenDale White," but I think this might go down as the Season of Joe McKnight, erasing those worries.  Defense should be absolutely fantastic, so they might not have to score all that many points anyway.

 

4) Oklahoma – What to think of the Sooners.  The less than pleasing aftertaste left for many fans were the primetime thrashings by Texas Tech and West Virginia, both teams that embarrassed Bob Stoops' defense in every way imaginable.  Sam Bradford was a revelation at quarterback, but when SMQ was looking at sophomore quarterbacks who played as freshman, they almost always head towards the mean, which is not a good thing for a stellar performer like Bradford.  He also loses second leading receiver Malcolm Kelly, All-Namer Joe Jon Finley and leading rusher Allen Patrick (although DeMarco Murry and Chris Brown should make that a very, very moot point). 

 

Questions arise in the defense, which returns only five starters and none of the top four tacklers.  The frontline should be somewhere between "stout" and "impregnable," with both highly-touted tackles back, but both Pat White and Graham Harrell made the defensive backfield look plain silly.  They contained Chase Daniel, who they won't see until (maybe) the Big XII championship, but they do have to contend with a deep conference QB-wise, with Todd Reesing (who the Sooners didn't have to contend with last year), Graham Harrell, Colt McCoy, Zac Robinson and Steve McGee.  None of the tougher games are on the road, with Texas Tech, Kansas and Nebraska in Norman and the Shootout in Dallas with the 'Horns, but the non-conference games aren't exactly cakewalks.  They have to play Washington in Seattle, where both Ohio State and USC almost slipped up last season, and host Cincinnati, who were beyond frisky in 2007.  They'll be double-digit favorites in both of those games, but if Bradford slips up and the defense starts leaking, I can't be wholly confident.

 

The main problem for the Sooners is that their pass defense was revealed as pretty flawed last season and they're playing in a conference stacked with quarterbacks.  If they can tighten the screws in the secondary and Bradford doesn't suffer a drastic drop-off, they will be Big XII favorites, but those are two incredibly big "if's" to factor in.

 

5) Florida – Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow.  Do not let the rather underwhelming performance against Michigan make you forget how good of a season Tebow had, or that Percy Harvin is, to go along with the cliché, a threat to score every time he touches the ball.  With Emmanuel Moody coming in from the left coast to steady things at the tailback position (which was not a strong point for Urban Meyer's offense last year), the offense should be back to putting gobs of points every game.  Remember, this unit put up 59 against Rocky Top, 45 against Kentucky, 51 at South Carolina, 45 against Florida State and 35 against the Wolverines.  The loss of tight end Cornelius Ingram to injury, along with crafty receiver Andre Caldwell to old age, will have an impact, but there's a reason Meyer recruits a dozen receivers every year.

 

But much like the Sooners, the defense could be trouble.  The defensive line, essentially divided into groups of guys who de-committed from Notre Dame and groups of guys who shoot of AK-47's in parking lots, could end up being solid, but oh, it is tough to tell.  I'm sure the Citrus Bowl performance against Michigan had more to do with Healthy Chad Henne and Healthy Mike Hart coming together, but another game in Florida, the Cocktail Party, conjures up images of Knowshon Moreno just running off tackle for a dozen yards a pop.  Major Wright may complete his transformation into Reggie Nelson, but it seems like a lot of people have to step up for the Gators to reach the heights of 2006.

 

Schedule-wise, it's not too tough for the SEC, with LSU and South Carolina coming to the Swamp, a road trip to Knoxville, missing Auburn and the Cocktail Party, but they do have games against Miami (FL) and Florida State out-of-conference, either of which could be due for a bounce-back season.  The only real question is the defense, which shouldn't be tested by a complete unit the Cocktail Party.  It all really hinges on the Georgia game, so be sure and circle your calendars for November 1st.  Odds are good that either both of these teams will be undefeated, making it Epic with a capital "E," or one will get the chance to play a deliciously sweet spoiler for the other.

 

6) Missouri – An out-of-nowhere dream season for the Tigers last year, who managed to receive one of the biggest shaftings in BCS history before taking out all of that frustration on a hapless Arkansas team.  The key to the whole thing, Chase Daniel, is back, along with all-everything offensive talent Jeremy Maclin (they're like a Tebow-Harvin North).  They have to find somebody to replace Tony Temple at tailback, but beyond that, the defense is mostly intact and the only team to beat Mizzou last year, Oklahoma, isn't on the schedule. 

 

The schedule breaks pretty favorably, as they get Illinois to open the season then take a month off before trips to Lincoln and Austin, with a home date against Oklahoma State wedged in-between.  They miss Texas Tech and Oklahoma, then again close out the season with the Jayhawks.  With the schedule and Daniel, there is really no reason to think the Tigers can't run the table at least until the Big XII title game, where the Sooners or Red Raiders would most likely loom.

 

7) LSU – 2007 didn't prove anything to me in regards to Les Miles' ability to coach, and while I may just be being stubborn, I think I'm seeing this relatively clearly.  He took a team super-loaded with talent, caught a bunch of breaks (Georgia missing the SEC title game, WVU getting upset, coming out ahead in the Incredibly Close Games which have just as much to do with luck as any sort of skill) and then played an Ohio State team that totally crapped the bed in front of a home crowd.  He has since lost his savvy quarterback, and while the talent is still there, the schedule is just as tough and the dice may have gone cold.

 

They'll blaze into the Plains of Auburn at an easy 3-0, whoever their quarterback ends up being, but then things get tricky with that game and road trips to Florida and South Carolina before hosting Georgia at home.  They'll roll up a gaudy record and maybe even slip into the SEC Title game, but they will not be repeating the least heralded "championship" of 21st century.

 

8) Clemson – If I just told you a team was returning eight starters on both sides of the ball, a quarterback who had a 27:6 TD:INT ratio last season, two stud tailbacks and was playing a very manageable schedule in the worst major conference, you'd immediately assume that team has a great shot at perfection.  And they should.  But this is Clemson, who manages to drop at least one game every season that has you shaking your head and wondering how exactly Tommy Bowden managed to fight off Victory and claim Defeat for his Tigers.

 

Granted, this reason alone is not enough to dismiss someone, as the 21st century has proven to us that "They can't win the big one" is not a legitimate reason to toss someone aside.  Consider: Roy Williams, Bill Self, Jim Boeheim, Phil Mickelson, Bill Cowher, the Red Sox, the White Sox, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning.  But because I still don't want to believe in Clemson, I'll point to the neutral site opener with Alabama, road trips to Wake Forest, Florida State and Boston College and the home finale against the Ol' Ball Coach as reason enough to boo-hoo their chances of immortality.

 

9) West Virginia – I think the Mountaineers are in serious trouble this season.  I could care less about the loss of Steve Slaton with Noel Devine there to replace him and Pat White's transcendent brilliance, but you can't account for the departure of guys who had a huge part in almost every big win WVU had last season.  Folk hero Owen Schmitt, go-to receiver Darius Reynaud and sackmaster Johnny Dingle are all gone, along with seven other defensive starters.  Count in the fact that White will miss a game or part of a game with injury, that they have a tougher non-conference slate than past years (at East Carolina, at Colorado, Auburn) and end the season at Louisville, at Pittsburgh and home against South Florida, and I'm saying the Mountaineers have the potential to be fall well below the double-digit win mark.  Perhaps the steady hand of Bill Stewart guides them to the Promised Land, but I think the odds are better he ends up crashing them into a goddamn bridge embankment.

 

10) Auburn – I initially disregarded Auburn, but after looking at things a little more closely, they're quite enticing as a "Buy" in regards to the preseason poll.  They're switching to a more spread-like offense, inducting Kodi Burns (he of 26 pass attempts in '07) in at quarterback and don't have a particularly awe-inspiring rusher returning from last season, although the tailbacks are all returning.  But then you look at it a little closer.  The entire offensive line is back.  They get LSU, Rocky Top and Georgia at home after the death march last year, while missing Florida.  They're at Alabama but own the Tide.  Tommy Tuberville always- always – has a good defense.  Burns gets to tune up with a rather slight opening three weeks before the Bayou Bengals come to town, and voila, there's your SEC West champion.  I'm not sure Burns is the real deal at quarterback, but with the running game in place around him, he really only has to be serviceable to get Tuberville another quality season and SEC championship appearance.

 

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