When you toss out the idea of Luke Harangody's potential draft position to Irish fans, you'll get a myriad of informed reactions.  Some don't even see him playing in the NBA, others see him as a potential second round pick.  Projecting whether he'll leave early, and if he does, where he'll go in the draft, is a dicey proposition, but I'll give it a shot.

On the question of whether Harangody leaves early, I would guess not.  Unless he grows four inches, adds six inches to his vertical and averages 35 and 15 next season, I don't see him going in the lottery, which means the potential for cashing in a big contract isn't there.  Granted, players have left school early with no chance of being drafted in the first round at all, but Luke doesn't seem like he's anywhere near that dumb and I can't imagine why he'd be willing to walk away from a senior year at Notre Dame on a contending team for a potential shot at limited first round glory.

So if Harangody stays for his entire four years, other than having the potential to set all kinds of records, he will put together a strong resume that NBA GM's in the past would have scoffed at.  I say in the past because, believe it or not, it appears the front offices of professional basketball are getting a little bit smarter.  The past few years have had fewer European and domestic high-risk, high-bust potential projects, although the implementation of the age limit has certainly contributed to this newfound caution.  But as the draft boards shape up for tomorrow night's proceedings, guys with limited college credentials, like LSU's Anthony Randolph and Texas A&M's DeAndre Jordan are tumbling down boards while guys who actually produced are taking their places.  It's a brave new world in the front offices of professional sports, but instead of soma, GM's are addicted to using advanced formulas to pick up efficient, productive players. 

Check out this excerpt from Henry Abbott's interview with Ken Catanella, the New Jersey Nets' Coordinator of Statistical Analysis:

For instance, something we have seen is players like Paul Millsap and Carl Landry. I'm guessing that traditional scouts thought they might be a little short for their positions, but they both have proven to be efficient in the NBA. Is that a kind of player that we can attribute to some new-breed stats?

There are some smaller frontcourt players like that, I think, who are an inch or two shorter than a traditional scout might like. Some of them have been overlooked, through the years, to a certain degree. Discounted because of certain physical attributes. There are ideas about his is how an NBA player should look, this is how he should run, and this is how he should jump.

But people are getting past that to a certain degree. That doesn't happen by accident. I don't know for sure about those players you mentioned, but I would guess that those guys would not have been drafted as high as they were drafted without someone assigning a value to what they do.

I've been thinking about this piece for a while, and a few of the names that popped into my head thinking about what Harangody could turn into were Millsap and Landry, along with Craig Smith, "Big Baby" Davis, maybe Ronny Turiaf and a dash of Mark Madsen (you get bonus points for comparing players across race, which is why Madsen is listed last).  These are not All-Stars or someone you'd go out of your way to trade for, but they're an undeniably important part any NBA team.  They are the glue guys, the instant energy off the bench that terrorizes and annoys the more talented players on the other team.

Of course, Big Luke will have to improve in one area if he wants to crack an Association rotation, and that is his defense.  It's not that he's bad at it, just that it's not the focal point of his game.  Last season, that was fine, as he concentrated his efforts on the offensive end while Rob Kurz drew the opposition's best frontcourt player on defense, leaving Harangody to roam and perhaps guard a less volatile opponent likely to put him in foul trouble.  As Notre Dame's depth improves and other scorers become more consistent, Harangody will be free to devote more time to the defensive end. (The consistent scoring comment is not a jab at anyone in particular, but really a stern nod at everyone.  Just check out the game logs for anybody else in the rotation.)

I think Harangody has a fantastic chance of really adding a lot of pieces to his game over the next two years, as he made a lot of progress just in the span of a few months this season.  Remember how absolutely dreadful he was against UConn and Georgetown, struggling mightily against two NBA-quality frontline players in Hasheem Thabeet and Roy Hibbert?  Only six weeks later, Thabeet could not stop him as he went off to the tune of 32 and 14, hitting jumpers and playing really smart offensive ball.  Two weeks later the Irish were again on the road in Freedom Hall against a team with a load of big, nasty frontline players and the Cardinals were shredded for 40 points and 12 boards (although a flurry of late threes helped to inflate that total slightly).  I realize Notre Dame lost both of those games, but that had significantly more to do with cold shooting and some poor play from the backcourt than it did with the front court. 

Even when The Worst Game Plan Ever was implemented against Washington State and the Cougars made it a point to focus their defense in the paint, Harangody responded with 22 boards, even though it was one of those nights in regards to the ball rolling into the basket.  Luke has the ability to contort his body and find angles to the hoop that you wouldn't expect a man of his size to be able to discover, and even after watching him for two complete seasons, one almost assumes there has to be some luck involved in the way he writhes his wide frame through the lane and to the tin, absorbing contact along the way.

I do not have any concern with conditioning or an ability to get up and down the floor as some scouts have questioned in Kevin Love.  Granted, Love is going through a lot more scrutiny because he's auditioning for a role in the top three to five range, but Harangody played a lot of minutes in an extremely up tempo offense and generally seemed to get stronger as the game went along.  He streamlined his physique between his first two seasons, so I see little reason - beyond the deliciousness of a Reckers pizza and smoothie combo - why he wouldn't continue to sharpen that aspect of his resume.

As I write this, I find myself with a lot of faith in Harangody.  Yes, there are problems, as he was perhaps too reliant on the refs and flopping for stretches of games last season, but he was unquestionably the best player in one of the best, deepest conferences in the nation.  When bouncing some ideas off my friend Mike he pointed out that this would be a big year for a lot of people involved with the team, as Brey will have to deal with the pressure of expectations and Harangody will be seeing double-teams every time he touches the ball.  While the first point is definitely true, I'm not sure that Harangody hasn't dealt with the worst of the defenses he'll face already in his career.  He's always going to draw the opposition's best interior defender like he did in 2007-08, but as far as double teams go, if he shows any sort of competency in kicking it out once the extra man comes, teams will have to back off of doubling down unless McAlarney, Ayers, Jackson, Peoples and Zeller all go on a collective cold streak from deep.  Harangody doesn't usually have a lot of assists, but that average will surely climb - or at least the number of "hockey assist" pass-before-the-assist will - if teams try to get fancy in guarding the Irish.

The following is a chart of just a few players I think Harangody has a chance to emulate in the NBA containing the statistics from their final collegiate seasons.  If the reigning Big East Player of the Year is able to keep adding facets to his game, regardless of whether his numbers continue to rise or even dip a bit, there will be a place for him in a NBA rotation.  The most important tool he can add to his shed of talents is a dedication to the defensive end, which is something all of these players have. 

I put free throw shooting percentage on there only as a way of somewhat measuring the shooting touch of each player, because overall field goal percentage would be skewed from the amount of lay-ups and dunks and none of them are taking enough threes to make that of any use.  If Harangody cracks a rotation and is the guy on the floor the opposition is sagging off of, all signs point to him hitting the open fifteen footer, something guys like P.J. Brown and Kurt Thomas have made a living off of doing their entire careers.  Luke simply doesn't have the size to reach their levels of play, but in the new smaller, faster NBA, he can contribute in different ways.  If Harangody's skill level and the intelligence of NBA front offices both continue to grow between now and Draft Night 2010, I think Luke will be taken in the latter half of the first round to a playoff team that realizes the sort of impact he can have on a game off the bench.  He'll never have the athleticism to be considered a top-tier pick, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have value farther down the board.

(It would also behoove Irish fans to root for Tyler Hansbrough to have some success when he reaches the league in 2009, as well as swallowing any bile they may have towards Ben Howland and the UCLA Bruins and wish success for Love.  The more athletically questionable, high motor, high basketball IQ guys succeeding in the next two years the better in for Harangody in a league known for its copycatting of whatever works.)