Why in the world should I care about the NBA draft?  The NBA is rigged, they don't try hard and it was so much better back in the day.

I'm not going to tell you to watch it if the thought of Josh Smith throwing down alley oops doesn't get you excited, but of all the major sports, the NBA draft is the best.  MLB is okay in the aftermath for die-hard baseball fans (Viva Pedro Alvarez!), but actually impossible to watch in its entirety due to the thousands of rounds involved, while hockey still hasn't reached any sort of mainstream level.  NFL is certainly close, and it's a matter of preference, but given that I understand basketball more than football at a systematic level, it's easier for me to break down.

For example, I watched enough hoops to be able to at least somewhat compare the benefits of taking DJ Augustin, Russell Westbrook or Jerryd Bayless as your point guard of the future.  Beyond what Mel Kiper tells you, how many people in the nation can properly translate whether Ryan Clady, Chris Williams or Jeff Otah will fit in better as the new Chicago Bears left tackle? 

I like to compare the NBA Draft to a shorter NFL draft that didn't have offensive linemen, just exciting skill position players and defensive monsters ready to impact the next season and help put a team over the top. 

Who is likely to go in the first few picks?

While there are apparently a few members of the Bulls organization in Camp Beasley, they're almost certain to take hometown boy Derrick Rose and move Kirk Hinrich (either out of town or over to the two guard).  The fun begins in the second spot, where Pat Riley doesn't want to take Michael Beasley but might anyway just because of the potential windfall he can get from trading him.  Riley wants OJ Mayo to make a dynamic, completely unpredictable backcourt with Dwyane Wade, and would probably trade with the Grizzlies (rumors of the number five pick, Mike Miller and Kyle Lowry) if he knew Mayo would be there.

With Kevin McHale and the Minnesota Timberwolves picking third, there is absolutely no idea of predicting what will happen once Miami is off the clock.

Who has been rising up as we get closer to Thursday?

The man who will most likely be the lone Big East represenative in the lottery (unless someone gets crazy with Roy Hibbert), Joe Alexander has shot up draft boards, along with UCLA point guard/wingman Russell Westbrook.  Alexander's end of season production was monster, as he was a beast as soon as the calendar turned March, and put in some great performances in tournament play.  He also has been working out like a mad man (second fastest and second strongest in the whole combine) and really is a newcomer to the game of basketball compared to a lot of other players in the draft, as he grew up in China and learned hoops there (he's also fluent in Mandarin).  Two weeks ago the Trailblazers were hoping to see Alexander fall to them at thirteen, but you can't find a mock that has him falling farther than the Bucks at number eight.

Westbrook is also impressing a lot of people as a jack-of-all-trades guard, being touted as a solid point guard, a defensive stopper and a Barbosa-like scorer (this is by Chad Ford, so dismiss if you like).  He never was rated that low, but he's been creeping into Bayless territory with the Seattle/Oklahoma City Supersonics at number four.  I don't see him falling past the Knicks at six, who need some toughness from the guard position beyond the trash-talking of Nate Robinson.

Who has been falling?

Three guys that seem to have trouble finding consistent  homes in the latest draft mocks are Stanford center Brook Lopez, LSU forward Anthony Randolph and Italian Danilo Gallinari (which again, must be breaking Ford's heart). 

Lopez seemed like a lock for the three spot and the T-Wolves until Riley hyped up Mayo and McHale developed his crush on Kevin Love.  He won't fall out of the top ten, but the odds of him going in that three spot are slimmer and slimmer. 

Randolph, a freshman who was productive but totally under the radar in an awful SEC, has drawn comparisons to Kevin Garnett, Brandan Wright and Chris Bosh, but really only because he is a thin, long forward who projects out to a 3/4.  He's got perhaps the most tremendous upside potential of anybody on the board, but also is potentially radioactive for teams that might only be a player or two away and can't wait for him to develop.

Gallinari was thought to be a shoe-in at six, as his dad played pro ball in Europe with new Knicks coach Mike D'antoni, but that's not for sure as the wandering eyes at the Garden look at Westbrook and Alexander.

Indiana's Eric Gordon is also raising some question marks, but I haven't seen him falling past the Clippers at number seven enough times to classify him as a true dropper.

If I'm betting on one player to go to one team after Rose to the Bulls, any suggestions?

Texas' DJ Augustin to the Indiana Pacers seems like a done deal unless someone above Larry Bird's crew snatches him up.  The Pacers need a point guard, Augustin played well in Austin and projects well to the NBA despite being a little undersized, and I'd say he's getting somewhat undervalued compared to Bayless and Westbrook.

Any sleepers for late in the first round?

I am a big fan of Cal forward Ryan Anderson.  When I was out in Los Angeles over spring break I saw the Golden Bears take on Mayo and the Trojans, and you've got to be impressed with a 6' 11" guy that's shooting 41% from three and averaging ten boards per game.  When I saw him he had an off shooting night (1-for-6 from behind the arc), but rolled up his sleeves and went inside, grabbing 12 boards, still put up 22 points and blocked a shot.  He might need to add some muscle, but keep an eye out for this kid to be working his way into the rotation of a returning playoff team by early 2009.

What's up with Kevin Love?  Is he a proven winner who will translate to the pro game or just a chubby guy who won't be able to make it up and down the floor?

After initially dismissing Love's chances, I think I might have talked myself into him when chatting with my friend Avants yesterday.  The NBA is getting smaller and faster, moving towards a full court game, although defense is still important (as you saw with the Celtics victory).  If the league keeps getting smaller, then Love won't have any super mismatches on the low block with his 6' 9" size.  But if it keeps getting faster, won't that mean his lack of footspeed will be a big factor as he waddles up and down the floor?

The one factor that would benefit Love here are his tremendous outlet passes, which have turned into a running joke among my friends in regards to how much the announcers hyped them up, but he is good at getting the ball quickly down the floor.  If he's not totally overwhelmed by the speed, size and athleticism of the opposition's front court on a nightly basis, he'll be able to anchor the defense and jump start the offense by firing perfect passes out to streaking guards.

I think Love could be a solid player on a good team, but I don't think he has much of an effect on some of the crappy teams at the top of the draft board.  He has the potential to bring a unique skillset and a winner's pedigree to a team that might put them over the top, but he also has a relatively high bust potential for where he might be taken (in the three to five range).  Anyone who tells you they know what Love will do in the NBA is lying, and because of that reason, he might be Thursday night's biggest domestic enigma (nothing can compare to the confusion caused by trying to translate European prospects).

Do you really think Rob Kurz is getting drafted?

No, and even if I did, I wouldn't get my hopes up after poor Russell Carter didn't get a flier taken on him in the second round last year.

The NBA Draft is Thursday night at 7:00 pm.  The photo theme for this post was "White forwards with a jump shot."