The Problem With Scheduling, Part One: Basketball, or Lessons Learned From Stephen Curry
The Notre Dame men’s basketball team had, especially when considering preseason expectations and the loss of Russell Carter and Colin Falls, a successful season. There were obviously some flaws – random bouts of turnovers versus the press, leaving three-point shooters wide open, stagnant periods of offense – but overall, I think most fans were really pleased with the effort this team gave throughout the season. They were fun to watch, played as a team and gave Notre Dame fans hope for next year’s season.
However, the biggest problem facing the Irish in their quest for a high seed in this year’s bracket was not their limitations in depth or lack of a true slasher. It had nothing to do with Louisville’s press, Hasheem Thabeet’s height or how overrated Roy Hibbert was. No, friends, the Irish’s fate of getting a five seed (and had they done better in the Big East tournament, maybe a 4 or perhaps a 3) was sealed before the season even started, when they rolled out one of the most ludicrously awful non-conference schedule you’d ever see a team have. Right now, Ken Pomeroy has it rated as 250th in the country, putting Kevin White’s adventures in scheduling right between Utah State and Canisius.
Before the season started, I said it was embarrassing, and when it came time for Selection Sunday, the team’s non-conference RPI and SOS numbers were glaringly bad, a legitimate excuse for the Irish to fall down to a five or six seed. Kansas State, who the Irish defeated on a neutral floor, is ranked 17th, while Baylor and Georgia Tech, two losses in the Virgin Islands Paradise Jam, are both in the high 40’s as far as RPI goes. But other than those two teams, the best team Notre Dame played in non-conference was Brown, 151st in the country. There’s really no excuse for that, and while the home winning streak is nice, it should come with a disclaimer that "While some of these wins are against very good Big East teams, most of them are against the dregs of the hardwood earth."
In my opinion, other than inflating your win total and giving your team confidence they can win games against really bad teams, there’s no benefit to having a weak non-conference schedule. If you think your team is going to be really bad, then it’s a great chance to have your young guys go through a trial by fire, playing against top competition and learning what they need to strive for. If you think your team is going to make the tournament, then good non-conference opponents is a great way to bolster your resume. If you can’t win any of those games, then you probably weren’t good enough to make the tournament anyway, and at the very least, your non-conference RPI and SOS look good enough you get the benefit of the doubt should you end up on the bubble (see: Arizona, 2008).
If you think your team has a chance to be very good, it’s almost essential to schedule a good non-conference slate. It’s imperative to get your computer numbers and list of quality wins up if you want to strive for one of the top seeds, because very seldom (Saint Joseph’s, 2004?) do teams get a number one seed with weak numbers. Perhaps even more importantly, you’re exposing your team to a variety of styles and potential match-up problems, all which prepare them better for the rigors of March Madness. The Big East is a great proving ground for eighteen games, but it can’t hurt to supplement that training with a half dozen decent non-conference opponents.
I’d like to think these last few years are an aberration, as Kevin White and company have already made a big step for next year by getting into the Maui Invitational, which will feature North Carolina, Texas, Indiana, Alabama, Oregon, St. Joes and host Chaminade. Even if they play Chaminade in one of the games, the Irish will get two other games against top competition on national television, great exposure for the program and a great learning experience for Ty Nash and the rest of the young guys being worked into the rotation. That’s a good first step, but White and the athletic department should also look into scheduling several other teams on an annual basis.
UCLA- Considering the decades-old legacy of the rivalry and the fact the Bruins look like they’re going to be a top program for a long while, there’s no reason the Irish and Bruins shouldn’t be facing off every year. In fact…
Southern Cal- Why not take a Los Angeles road trip over sometime in the early season, hitting up both the Bruins and Trojans in one fell swoop? The greatest football rivalry in the country would bleed some of that animosity over into hoops, even if both fanbases are far more interesting in the gridiron. When UCLA and Southern Cal come here to play, perhaps they can also make a weekend out of it, scheduling a Big Ten team and making the trip worthwhile.
Big Ten teams- A few years ago, the Irish played both Indiana and Michigan, a trend that sadly stopped the last couple seasons. While the team may eventually face Tom Crean’s Indiana Hoosiers in Maui (one NCAA win in five seasons! As long as he can get Dwyane Wade to come to Bloomington, great hire, Hoosiers!), what’s the reason for not facing Michigan, Indiana and/or Purdue on a yearly basis? Why not a few neutral floor games, against Illinois in the United Center, Michigan State in the Palace or Indiana or Purdue in Conseco?
The team doesn’t have to play world beaters every game before Big East play starts, but it would be more entertaining for the fans and much better for the team for those late November and early December games in the Joyce Center to actually be against teams that have a chance to win. Maybe the final record will contain a few more losses, but it will also have a bunch of shiny, quality, non-conference wins, perhaps the best thing to carry into Selection Sunday.
If you want a great example of what heavy non-conference scheduling can do for a team, even if they can’t pull out the wins, look no further than the Davidson Wildcats. Before entering conference play, Stephen Curry and Co. took on UCLA, North Carolina, Duke, North Carolina State, also dropping games to Western Michigan and Charlotte during that span. While they couldn’t pull off wins against any of those teams, they were more than prepared to deal with having a giant target on their back during conference play, and when they came up against teams similar to the Tar Heels and Bruins of the world in the tournament, there wasn’t any sort of confusion from the Wildcats: They knew exactly what to expect.
Granted, Davidson had to schedule heavily in the non-conference because they couldn’t get any big wins once they got into Southern league play, a problem the Irish don’t have to worry about because of the luxury of playing in the Big East.
I think this season will probably – hopefully – mark the low point of Irish non-conference scheduling. The Maui Invitational appearance is ten steps above the field of the Paradise Jam, and as long as White and Coach Brey reach out to quality teams in the area, as well as some old friends from out west, I think the 2008-2009 Irish team will be more than prepared for the scrutiny their resume will receive on Selection Sunday and the dancing that follows.
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Comments
I think Brey is gun shy and bitter
i agree the sched could be improved, but trying to game the system too much, or anticipate the committee 9 months in advance, isn't likely to work out either
just playing teams in the low 100s more would help the raw #s as much as adding a high team or two
remember, a top 25 opponent is closer to team 100 than team 101 is to, say, Longwood
by RoyalsReview on Apr 4, 2008 12:12 AM EDT 0 recs
you can add the close miss
by RoyalsReview on
Apr 4, 2008 12:12 AM EDT
up
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