To start the discussion, an excerpt from Stewart Mandel's mailbag this week:

Not really a question, but I wanted to add to your answer last week about Notre Dame's Gator Bowl chances given that the Cotton Bowl can select Notre Dame once every four years to replace an SEC team, according to the school's Web site. I don't know if they would get to jump over the Gator Bowl to do so but I think an 8-4 ND team is playing on New Year's Day somewhere.
-- Sean, Hartford, Conn.

You are correct. As much as I try to keep on top of all the various bowl arrangements, there are so many kooky side deals and shared partnerships now it's almost impossible to keep track of everything. Making matters even more confusing is that, in talking to the various parties involved, no one seems to have the same understanding of how this arrangement works.

Yes, the Cotton Bowl's deal with the SEC includes a clause that it can select Notre Dame once in the current four-year period (this is Year 3). But the Gator Bowl also has a deal with the Big East (of which the Irish are a bowl partner) that specifically includes first dibs at Notre Dame if the Irish aren't in the BCS. One source told me that if both bowls desire Notre Dame, the school gets to pick. But another told me there would have to be "a discussion" in order for the Gator to relinquish its rights to the Irish.

Rob brought this up in an e-mail over the weekend, but I'll attempt to elaborate on the Cotton Bowl X-factor, which is certainly interesting.  The Cotton Bowl almost always takes a SEC West team, meaning the Irish would most likely be contending with the Bayou Bengals for the spot, unless LSU uses their Anti-Saban Rage to upset  Alabama and put the Tide into some sort of death spiral that knocks them out of the BCS entirely.  If Notre Dame goes 9-3 with a respectable loss to Southern Cal, I could see the Cotton Bowl considering them over a 3-loss LSU team whose marquee wins would be comparable (actually, probably even less inspiring) than those of the Irish.

This scenario isn't great, however, as it would pit the Irish against the third or fourth-best Big XII team, a dicey proposition that resulted in Arkansas getting absolutely murdered by an an angry Chase Daniel last January 1st.  If Texas and Oklahoma go to the BCS, the Irish would be left to face Oklahoma State, Mizzou or Texas Tech, all intimidating propositions.  I really want to win a bowl game, and while it would be possible to do so against one of those stout Big XII teams, I'd rather take my chances in. . ..

....beautiful Jacksonville, Florida!  The Gator Bowl automatically gets the second best ACC team after the BCS is forced to take the champion (poor BCS), meaning that you could see no fewer than nine different teams in the Gator Bowl (Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Miami, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech).   If the Irish go 8-4 (split the next two games, loss at Southern Cal), then they would most likely be heading for the Gator Bowl.  But even though Notre Dame has some obvious clout when it comes to bowl selections, this isn't a slam dunk.  Over the next two years, the Gator Bowl will select one Big East team or Notre Dame, and one Big XII team.  This is the best year for the Big XII in some time, so let's say that Notre Dame goes 8-4 with a bad loss to Southern Cal at the end of the season. 

On the other hand, let's say that Texas wins out to the Big XII title game, where they're upset by Missouri, and Oklahoma or Oklahoma State also win out.  Now Mizzou is in the BCS and Texas would almost certainly follow, meaning the Gator Bowl could be choosing between 8-4 Notre Dame and a one-loss Oklahoma or Oklahoma State.  According to the rules, the Gator Bowl gets the first selection of a Big XII team after the BCS takes its one or two (which it will be), represenatives.  I know when it comes to going bowling the Irish almost always take precedence, but I find it difficult to imagine that the Gator Bowl would pass on a one-loss Sooners team for a four-loss Irish team.  That would potentially bump the Irish down to. . .

....exotic El Paso, Texas, where the cliffs are as high as the midday sun!  Now, if I understand the language of the selection process correctly, then I don't think this could actually happen.  From the Sun Bowl site:

The Brut Sun Bowl is in an agreement with the Konika Minolta Gator Bowl to alternate picks between the Big 12 and Big East Conferences with each bowl game having a one-time option to select Notre Dame.

If the Gator Bowl selects a Big East Conference school, then the Brut Sun Bowl will have the fifth pick from the Big 12 Conference. If the Gator Bowl selects a Big 12 Conference school, the Brut Sun Bowl has the second pick from the Big East Conference. If Notre Dame is not selected to participate in the Bowl Championship Series, then they would replace a Big East selection by either bowl game if bowl eligible.

In 2006, the Brut Sun Bowl selected Missouri, while the Konika Minolta Gator Bowl selected West Virginia. In 2007, the Brut Sun Bowl selected USF, while the Konika Minolta Gator Bowl selected Texas Tech.

I was under the impression that they just had to even out at the end of the agreement, meaning the Gator Bowl could take another Big XII team this year, but then lock themselves into a Big East team or Notre Dame next year.  This language makes it appear that they have to alternate, meaning the Gator Bowl would have to take a Big East team, or unless things change drastically over the next month, Notre Dame.  You'll notice the language is different for both bowls, meaning the committess might not have any idea what they're going to do besides wearing kick-ass jackets.  If Notre Dame were to fall off to an ugly 7-5, they would still be a pretty attractive option for the Sun Bowl, which would be contingent on them working out an agreement with the Gator where the third best Big XII team went to Jacksonville and Notre Dame spent New Years Eve in El Paso playing the third best PAC-10 team (Oregon, Oregon State, Cal or Arizona, potentially).

From reading over selection rules, it seems most likely that an 8-4 Notre Dame team would be playing in the Gator Bowl, or at the very worst, the Sun Bowl.  Lose more than four games, then we have to start looking farther down the totem pole, a very disheartening proposition we'll address only if the situation presents itself.  If the Irish win out, they'd enter the BCS conversation, but just like the worst case November, we won't address the best case scenario until everyone has officially tasted the delicious tears of the Panthers, Eagles, Midshipmen, Orange and Trojans.  For now, start packing your bags for Jacksonville.  Or maybe Dallas.  Or quite possibly El Paso. . .