Quinn vs. Russell, With The Aid of Dolphin Fans (and now 'Football Outsiders')

by CW on Apr 17, 2007 11:35 PM EDT in Football Comment 0 comments

Before the draft next Saturday - although the way ESPN covered it all day Tuesday, you'd think it was this weekend - I wanted to post "The Definitive Book on Brady Quinn". Seeing every relevant Quinn snap over the last three season, as well as watching JaMarcus Russell a half dozen times each season, I feel qualified enough to compare the two. However, after browsing the internet, there's more than enough research coming out from an incredibly intelligent group of people:

Miami Dolphin fans.

The Dolphans' vigor in looking at Quinn vs. Russell comes from the fact they believe there's a chance they either trade up high enough or potentially the Irish QB drops low enough that they can take him, so they're trying to decide if it's worth burning a top ten pick on a guy everyone else is saying is clearly inferior to LSU's big guy in the backfield.

Now before I delve into this, allow me to make my stance on the issue very, very clear:

I'm not 100% sold on Brady Quinn as a NFL quarterback. He's had putrid stretches over the course of a game where he couldn't hit the broadside of a barn, but I've seen him take too many hits, get up and carry a team with limited talent around him to doubt his chances at leading a professional team to victory. On the other side, I don't think JaMarcus Russell is anywhere near a surefire NFL quarterback, even with his Tremendous Upside Potential rating of 9.9.

You'll notice when the analysts talk about Russell, the first three things they say are "can throw it 80 yards", "6'6"" and "pretty light on his feet for size". I know they run loads of fly routes in the NFL, and that the last few Super Bowl champions have all won because of their top-notch passing games - such as Peyton Manning handing off on every 3rd down after the first two series, Big Ben turning in a 22.6 QB rating in the big game and Tom Brady simply taking what the defense gave him and avoiding turnovers - but somehow I'm not sure JaMarcus' skill set translates directly to NFL success. If you want to compare him to Michael Vick or Vince Young, that's a terrible comparison, considering the Bayou Bengal rushed for only only 142 yards on 52 attempts last year.

I realize it's easy to look at the two and immediately assume, due to the color of skin, that Russell is an immensely superior athlete, but it's not 100% true. Quinn probably could have played basketball at the collegiate level, as anyone who watched him play in Bookstore or pick-up games at Rolfs knows, and showed great mobility in running for his life behind a terrible offensive line all season.

Bottom line: Quinn might not be the answer, but don't think JaMarcus is some kind of franchise savior because ESPN tells you so.

Anyway, back to the original point of this post, which is to look at some research done over the last week. The first comes from SBN's own The Phinsider, who takes a few stats from quarterbacks taken in the first round since 1998. Matt looks at "Games Started" and "Completion Percentage", which is rather arbitrary but also, when you look at how the college quarterbacks turned out, seems rather relevant.

This is a list of quarterbacks who had completion percentages of over 59% and started in 35 games or more:

Carson Palmer - 45 Starts, 59%
Ben Roethlisberger - 38 Starts, 65%
Byron Leftwich - 36 Starts, 65%
Matt Leinart - 39 Starts, 65%
Philip Rivers - 49 Starts, 64%
Daunte Culpepper - 43 Starts, 64%
Donovan McNabb - 45 Starts, 63%
Peyton Manning - 45 Starts, 63%
Eli Manning - 37 Starts, 61% (Jay Cutler's numbers were 43 starts and 57%, with probably the worst supporting cast of anyone on this list. Vince Young checked in with 32 starts and 61%, but had additional skills rivaled on this list only by Michael Vick.)

That's stunning when you think about it. Quarterbacks taken in the first round who complete a high percentage of passes and played three seasons or more are, for the most part, success stories. Actually, "success stories" might be an understatement. If Daunte Culpepper returns to form, those are all starters, and very good ones at that.

For a comparison, Brady Quinn's numbers are 46 starts and a 58% completion rate. JaMarcus Russell has a higher completion percentage, but a scant amount of starts, putting him at 61% and 29 starts.

Let's just start off with a list of quarterbacks who started fewer than 35 games in college:

Kyle Boller - 31 Starts, 48%
Ryan Leaf - 24 Starts, 53%
Joey Harrington - 26 Starts, 55%
Michael Vick - 21 Starts, 56%
JP Losman - 29 Starts, 57%
Akili Smith - 11 Starts, 58%
Tim Couch - 27 Starts, 67%
Alex Smith - 22 Starts, 66%
David Carr - 26 Starts, 62%
Drew Brees - 26 Starts, 61%
Rex Grossman - 32 Starts, 61%
Vince Young - 32 Starts, 61%

Say it with me now: Ouch. Drew Brees is a bonafide franchise saver while Alex Smith, JP Losman, Michael Vick, Rex Grossman and Vince Young can still end up as great players, but this list is ugly. Kyle Boller is playing behind the artist formerly known as Air McNair, Joey Harrington's on his way to his third team in three seasons, the Texans just gave up on David Carr and Akili Smith, Tim Couch and Ryan Leaf are all out of the league. Using Matt's comparison system, the best case for Russell is Vince Young, but again, Young has a special skill set that no one can duplicate, even though ESPN will tell you otherwise.

Another analysis is less historical and more "So if Brady Quinn can't win the big games, how does JaMarcus Russell handle them?", and comes from the FinHeaven messageboard member CKParrothead. You should really read the entire thing, but the part that jumps out to me is near the end.

CK takes the numbers that Russell and Quinn put up against top 15 defenses. For LSU, that was playing Florida and Auburn, and for the Irish, playing Southern Cal, Michigan, Penn State and LSU. Again, sample sizes, but it's worth noting.

Brady Quinn versus Elite:

86 of 154, 943 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs :: 77.9 QB Rating, 25.0 Points Per Game

JaMarcus Russell versus Elite:

44 of 76, 497 yards, 1 TDs, 3 INTs :: 65.5 QB Rating, 6.5 Points Per Game

Anyone that followed LSU all year noticed that it was apt at crushing crappy defenses, but struggled against the good teams. And perhaps most importantly, please remember the 2005 Peach Bowl, where Matt Flynn stepped in against a scary Miami Hurricane defense and put up 40 points. If Brady Quinn isn't the Irish signal caller all season? Well, that's something Irish fans might not to think about, even with the 10-3 finish.

The debate will continue here and across both the World Wide Leader and the blogosphere, so be sure and stay tuned into next weekend as we cover the NFL Draft market.

Update [2007-4-18 10:40:1 by CW]: The Football Outsiders agree, using much of the same information. Via NFL Fanhouse, with the typical idiotic comments. Apparently not winning bowl games - two where you were playing far superior teams, one when you didn't have a coach - means you're not clutch. I'd beg to differ, but everyone's entitled to their opinion.

From the FO recap on Russell:

LSU took over with 1:04 to go at their own 20-yard line trailing 7-3 with no timeouts remaining. On the first play from scrimmage Auburn sat back in a soft Cover-2 zone with the safeties deep. Russell didn’t notice this until it was too late and threw the ball out of bounds over the head of Craig Davis who was open running a vertical route down the sideline. The LSU coaching staff called Russell over and pointed out that he could pick the zone apart by throwing the ball to Davis in the Cover-2 hole at the sideline 20 yards downfield.

LSU then went out and ran the exact same play two more times. Russell hit Davis for gains of 20 and 21 yards. Davis was immediately drilled out of bounds both times. The Auburn safeties came flying downhill because they knew what was coming, but they couldn’t stop it. Russell simply got the ball there too fast.

All of a sudden LSU was driving. They had the ball on the Auburn 39-yard line with 50-odd seconds to go. Auburn, knowing they were in trouble, changed up their defense getting out of the soft Cover-2. Russell went back to pass, and seeing something different from what he was expecting, got confused. Luckily the protection was good and he was able to scan the field for four or five seconds. Still not seeing anything he liked, Russell began to roll to his right. He escaped the pressure and continued to move towards the sideline at a leisurely pace. Instead of throwing the ball away to stop the clock Russell decided to tuck it and duck upfield. He was tackled in-bounds at the line of scrimmage for no gain.

He got up without any sense of urgency and with a grin on his face. He seemed to be quite pleased with himself for avoiding a sack and maybe picking up a yard. After about a second he finally heard all the people screaming for him to spike the ball and began to hustle to the line. However by then it was too late. By the time LSU got set and spiked it there were only 25 seconds remaining. Russell had just wasted 20 crucial seconds. I have only rarely been angrier while watching a football game (not because I’m an LSU fan, I’m not, but because I like to see the game played intelligently).

Russell ended up bouncing back on the next play by hitting Dwayne Bowe for 20 yards putting LSU back in striking distance with under ten seconds remaining. However he followed that up with a stupid illegal formation penalty that pushed them back to the 24-yard line, and then hit Craig Davis for a 19-yard gain with no time left on the clock.

Overall Russell’s numbers for the game looked pretty good (20/35, 267 yards, no TDs or picks), but when it counted he made certain LSU would come up short. That pretty much says all there is to say about Russell. He will tantalize you with impossible throws, but there is significant evidence that mentally he doesn’t have what it takes to be a great quarterback.