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NCAA Tournament Open Thread: First Round Friday
I'm still mulling over how I want to approach yesterday's first round loss to Old Dominion. I'm disappointed, but not surprised. We'll talk about it in-depth once the dust settles, but for now, keep on enjoying the tournament.
If you're stuck in the office or class or something equally terrible, the fine folks at CBS have provided us with a nice little widget to watch all of the games live right here on Rakes. To launch the application, click right here
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11) Old Dominion vs. 6) Notre Dame Open Thread
Go Irish, Beat Monarchs.
If you're stuck in the office or class or something equally terrible, the fine folks at CBS have provided us with a nice little widget to watch all of the games live right here on Rakes. To launch the application, click right here
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Sixteen Random Thoughts Before We Start The 2010 NCAA Tournament's Start
Over the years, I've grown less and less interested in my own bracket. My only goal is to nail one sleeper among the usual 1's and 2's that make the Final Four. Sometimes, this goes really well, as I had Davidson in the national semis in 2008 and was oh-so-close to everlasting glory. More often, my sleepers fall in the first round, cut down at the buzzer by Drew Nicholas, such as the poor Seahawks of UNC-Wilmington in 2003. The trick is to only pick out one sleeper, because if you just have every Elite Eight a match-up between 6's and 7's, then happen to get one right, where's the glory in that? This year I like BYU, but I could absolutely see them getting out-athleted by Florida in the first round. But we'll see, that's the beauty of the next three weeks.
There are actually a few things to hate about the NCAA tournament, although it is pretty close to perfect. The main reason is the committee's propensity of pairing up exciting mid-majors next to each other. This has happened a lot over the years, and there's no excuse for it. Western Kentucky/Drake. Gonzaga/Davidson. Kyle Korver/Chris Kaman. As with everything the NCAA does, it is to protect the big guy, and it's no different from pairing up Boise State and TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. Ignorance is almost always bliss, but the less you think about shady underhandedness of college athletics, the better. But honestly, once "One Shining Moment" starts playing, I forget how much I loathe Dan Guerrero and move on with my life. (This might not happen this year with Jennifer Hudson singing it. Might as well mess with a good thing!)
Not that it matters in the slightest, but I have Kansas beating Kentucky in my championship game. It's boring, and it's probably wrong, but I accept that. We all like to be adventuresome in our picks, but in the end, it's almost always one of the top five or six teams in the country that wins this thing. Your bracket will make you feel good when you fill it out, but by the time the Elite Eight rolls around, you're losing to some nerd in your office that couldn't tell you Duke's leading scorer, let alone who knocked off the Blue Devils each year since they won it all in 2001. (Indiana, Kansas, Connecticut, Michigan State, LSU, VCU, West Virginia, Villanona. And that's from memory, sadly.)
So I say fill out your bracket, tuck it away, and root for chaos. It's always more fun that way. Pull it out before the Final Four and see if you're in the running to win some cash. If so, great, now you know who to root for. If not, continue supporting chaos. On the morning of one of the greatest days in sports, here are sixteen random tournament-related thoughts.
1) Is this West Virginia team discernibly different from the one that lost in the first round to Dayton last year? They're certainly better, but that much better? Their guard play is still divided between a sophomore that just doesn't quite get it yet and a one-armed gamer who has, well, one-arm. And don't give me the "Da'Sean Butler Won't Let Them Lose" argument. The last player with a season as clutch as Butler was Acie Law IV in 2007, and he ended up missing a lay-up against Memphis that knocked the Aggies out. I could see Missouri giving them a lot of trouble in the second round with the press. Or they could wax Kentucky in the Elite Eight. I just don't think they're the lock of locks everyone thinks they are.
2) Sticking with Kentucky, they have a very difficult draw to the Final Four. There isn't one team that is clearly dangerous until they'd hypothetically get to the Mountaineers, but there are all sorts of fun, varied tests for a young team. In the second round they're going to get a very talented but poorly coached Wake Forest or Texas team that could put together a good weekend of hoops. Then they get Wisconsin, Temple or Cornell, all incredibly smart, slow teams that could hinder Big Blue's immense athletic advantages. And then in the Elite Eight they could get a bunch of ridiculous, blood-thirsty 6' 9" Mountaineers that will attempt to neutralize the Wildcats' prowess by pounding them into submission. Tricky, but the Coach Cal + Lottery Pick Point Guard formula has worked out very well the last few years.
3) I said I like BYU as a sleeper, but I'm very nervous about them even surviving to face Kansas State. (Who I don't believe in, but honestly, haven't watched played that much beyond the Kansas losses and Texas win.) They've lost something like a dozen straight first round games, yet they have a guy named Jimmer. When push comes to shove in the NCAAs, just always pick the team that can shoot, unless they have a huge, huge size disadvantage. But even then, teams with only one big man have done a lot of damage before falling in dramatic fashion (St. Joes in 2004, Davidson in 2008).
4) UTEP/Butler is one of those bullshit small school vs. small school things the tournament does just to screw with people. UTEP's front line is monstrous and Randy Culpepper can score, but Butler has been here before and won't get rattled, even with the Miners' huge front line. The winner will either face Vanderbilt - a team I liked all year due to having guard play and a post presence, but who sputtered down the stretch - or Murray State, everyone's favorite Cinderella. Looking at the Racers' numbers, it's hard not to be impressed, especially when you consider Siena blitzed the Commodores in this same seeding match-up two years ago.
5) I'm not sure I'm sold on Syracuse, especially if Arinze Onuaku is banged up. Yes, they dominated the Big East regular season, but Boeheim's track record in the tournament post-Carmelo isn't stellar. Onuaku is so important to a team where everyone knows its roles so well, he's got to be healthy for the second weekend. The one factor that would relieve my doubt is if Wes Johnson's health has benefited from the limited action over these last two weeks. If he can be Carmelo or even Carmelo-lite, then that solves a lot of the Orange's ills.
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First Thoughts On The Old Dominion Monarchs
Sorry for the delay, folks, but I was traveling the last couple days and only now have been able to sit down and digest the Fighting Irish's first round opponent. This seems to be a pretty difficult draw, as Old Dominion is a big, deep, veteran team that's comfortable playing slow. They've already played a lot of bigger conference teams this year (Missouri, Dayton, Richmond, Mississippi State, Georgetown, Northern Iowa), including a victory over the Hoyas on campus. They're coming out of the Colonial Athletic Association, a league that's seen some tournament success the last few years with George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth. The odds of the Monarchs being intimidated by playing a Big East school are somewhere south of zero.
Things revolve around 6' 10" senior Gerald Lee, the only ODU player to average double digits on the season. Lee is one of the main reasons Old Dominion is highly ranked in 2-point field goal percentage (49.4%, good for 107th) and offensive rebounding rate (42.4%, first in the country). I'm particularly impressed by Lee's numbers in the game against Mississippi State, because even with Theo Ratliff 2.0 Jarvis Varnado patrolling the paint and collecting five blocks, Lee went 9-for-15 for twenty points. Complementing Lee on the inside is 6' 8" Frank Hassell, the team's leading rebounder and shot blocker, as well as the second-leading scorer. Coming off the bench in support of the front line is a very intriguing player in Keyon Carter, another 6' 8" body that can rebound and shoot three at a 35% clip, good enough to lead the team.
And that, friends, is where we find Old Dominion's apparent weakness: they cannot shoot the three. To their credit, they recognize this and don't shoot that many. When the treys fall -as they did against Georgetown when the Monarchs hit 7-of-16 - they seem very, very difficult to stop.* Their guard rotation consists of 6' 1" Darius James, 6' 5" Ben Finney and 6' 5" Kent Bazemore, so some good size in the backcourt as well, making this team's offensive rebounding rate make more and more sense. This would also lead me to believe Notre Dame could institute the same sort of sagging man they used on Connecticut and Pittsburgh players not named Ashton Gibbs, but perhaps Mike Brey has something else up his sleeve.
* When we discuss the Georgetown game, I think it's important to note that Bad Chris Wright showed up, shooting 2-of-8 and going 0-for-3 from three. When BCW is in the game, any loss is possible for the Hoyas.
Here is the weird thing about the Monarchs: despite an absurd proficiency for scoring 2-pointers and some very good big men in the post, they barely ever get to the free throw line. They're not particularly good at shooting as a team when they get there - although Lee, their leading shooter there, is 76% - but I'm excited to crack open 360 and see what kind of offense they run that they're scoring a ridiculous amount of 2-pointers without getting fouled that much. Crafty Monarchs.
If you're interested in taking your own look at Old Dominion, they have four games on ESPN360, including all of their CAA tournament contests and the win at Georgetown. I think I'm going to start with their semifinal win over VCU (in overtime) and then move onto to the Hoya victory. The Irish have been playing great basketball, but this Monarch team seems like a tough, slow, big team that is going to be a very, very difficult out.
~
Some other random stuff:
- In case you were not aware, the game will start at 12:25 Thursday afternoon from New Orleans, with Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas on the call.
- Old Dominion is based in Norfolk, Virginia, and has an enrollment of over 24,000 students. They're a little short on famous alumni I could dig up, so for our purposes this week, focus your hatred on Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander and Cash Cab host Ben Bailey. Et tu, Ben?
- Notre Dame is a two-point favorite over the Monarchs, and if you're really feeling confident about their chances, you can get them at 20-1 to advance to the Final Four.
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Dancing on Bourbon Street
First, hooray. It's time for the best college sports thing in the World, if not the best sports thing period. It's great to be a part of it after (1) last year's debacle and (2) this year's almost-debacle. I'm so excited I even accidentally referred to a pizza place's delivery area as its "delivery bracket" ten minutes ago.
After CBS made things uncomfortable for a minute and announced the Irish in the very last match-up of the tournament, it was time to scramble up some info on Old Dominion and (if all goes according to plan..please) Baylor. A more detailed scouting report will follow in the unbearable three day-Christmas Eve between today and Thursday, but here are some initial thoughts on half of the New Orleans pod.
Respek is important. Most projections had ND coming in at an 8 seed, and we breathed a sigh of relief when the 8/9 game under Kansas featured (1) Northern Iowa and (2) not ND. The basketball gods seemed to be smiling this St. Patrick's week, and maybe they sort of were: a 6 seed showed the committee's respect for ND's late-season run in the toughest conference and conference tourney in America. Very nice. But the compliment was backhanded. Because...
Old Dominion is good. One could make the argument that ND would've landed a better draw as the 8, 12, or even 13 seed in the South. Maybe not. But the Irish's first-round and potential second-round match-ups are less than desirable. Working quietly in the CAA all year, Old Dominion posted an early-season win at Georgetown and rolled through their conference schedule and tournament. A quick glance at the Monarchs' stat sheet shows a balanced scoring attack, led by senior forward Gerald Lee, who averages about 15 and 5 a game (he was also born in Finland, so that's fun). KenPom rates ODU as his 33rd-overall team (five slots ahead of ND), and a top-20 squad in his nerdtastic defensive efficiency ratings.
Baylor is very good. If we slog it out Thursday, we'll likely have to face the Baylor Bears on Saturday, who have been under-the-radar in the fantastic Big XII all year. Perhaps the scariest team in the region. Three wins over Texas, victories over TAMU, Oklahoma State, Mizzou and Xavier. Its two losses to Kansas State were by 2 and 7 points, and it fell to Kansas by 6 in their only match-up this season. The Bears went 11-5 in the second-best conference in the country, and feature a fearsome threesome: First, there's 6'4'' guard LaceDarius Dunn, who averages 19 points, 5 boards and 2 assists a game. Point guard Tweety Carter scores just under 16 a game and drops 6 dimes per contest. Inside, 6'10'' Michigan transfer Epke Udoh scores 14 a game, pulls down 10 boards, and averages 3.9 blocks per game. 3.9 blocks! I don't know about you, but I'd rather play Duke. Or Nova. Or anyone not named Kansas or Kentucky.
But before we get too excited about Baylor, there's Thursday, and before there's Thursday, there are like 90 hours. Read up and go ahead and gnash those teeth in the comments section.
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Potential NCAA Opponents Based On Pace
As we count down to the release of brackets on Selection Sunday, the most important thing to remember is this: Match-ups are more important than seeding.
With Notre Dame's new reduced pace, they have the ability to drive teams that play fast insane and completely take them out of their game. Conversely, teams that are used to playing slow will gladly trade 33-second possessions with the Irish. Here's a few of each, using KenPom's pace numbers:
POTENTIAL TOURNAMENT TEAMS THAT PLAY FAST:
10. Washington
11. BYU
12. Villanova
14. Texas
28. Kansas State
36. Xavier
39. Syracuse
40. Missouri
48. Georgia Tech
49. Wake Forest
POTENTIAL TOURNAMENT TEAMS THAT PLAY SLOW:
341. Wisconsin
333. Temple
332. Pittsburgh
331. Utah State
305. Marquette
301. West Virginia

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When You Walk Through The Garden...: 2010 Big East Tournament, Day Five
As an Irish fan, I'm disappointed with losing last night, but it's not a bad way to go out. They were playing against a top ten team whose best player was hitting everything (Da'Sean Butler went 9 of 15, and I don't remember him missing those six shots) and still had a shot to win the game. The Irish were killed on the boards, and it took a fantastic performance from Ben Hansbrough to keep them close. This was really a worst case scenario match-up for Notre Dame - a team comfortable playing slow, a lot of athletes, capable of hitting the boards well - and they acquitted themselves quite well. Now we sit, and we wait and pray for a good match-up.
On the other side of the bracket, Georgetown just overwhelmed Marquette in the final quarter of the game. The Golden Eagles' threes stopped falling and that was that, as Greg Monroe continued his surge through the Big East Tournament and up NBA draft boards with a 23/13/7. It's a battle between him and Da'Sean Butler for winning Big East Championship MVP, and they're both very deserving candidates. West Virginia has the advantage of playing a game less than the Hoyas, but JT3's team is humming along right now. Should be another classic in the Garden after four days of them.
Huge day of hoops today, so enjoy folks. We'll be back to cover the bracket selections tomorrow.
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